The foreign ministers of Georgia's breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are in Nauru in the hope it will lobby for their recognition as independent countries.
Tuvalu and Vanuatu quit their ties to the two small republics in 2014 and no new country has signed up to recognise the pair since.
The Director of the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at Massey University Rouben Azizian told Walter Zweifel the politics of the Caucasus region are complex and tied into larger rivalries.
South Ossetia - a break-away republic of Georgia recognised by four countries as an independent state
Photo: AFP
Transcript
ROUBEN AZIZIAN: The opportunities are quite limited because first off, there is not much understanding in this part of the world or anywhere else about what is going and who they are and what is their status. So there is no strong international movement or campaign in support of these two breakaway regions. What they are are counting on, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is the financial vulnerability of the small islands and other smaller nations where they basically can offer some incentive - or bribes is the other word for that - and that has happened before. At the same time these countries are coming under strong pressure from Georgia who is supported by Western nations who opposed any such recognition. So in a way it's a miniature China-Taiwan chequebook diplomacy that we witnessed some time ago. So this is a smaller version of that.
WALTER ZWEIFEL: Do you think after Tuvalu and Vanuatu rescinded their recognition of these two places a few years ago that there is any chance that this can be turned around and more countries would go for recognition?
RA: I doubt that this is going to happen. But what is likely to happen is that we can see some of these countries moving back and forth. One day they will recognise the Abkhazians and the following week they will be enticed by Georgia and they will withdraw their recognition. So I don't think there is much chance of these two republics getting much more support in the region for the reasons that there is very little understanding of what is going on. Second, Russia's influence in the region is limited - of course there is Russia behind Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia's influence in this part of the world is quite limited whereas Georgia of course is arguing against independence. In my opinion it has a stronger support because most Western nations support Georgia's independence and they haven't recognised Abkhazia. So we are talking here the Russia group versus the West group, and I don't think Russia has that much of an influence compared to the West group. Russia will continue to support these republics and promote them primarily because of their intolerance with Georgia. They see Georgia as the wrong model for many post-Soviet republics because Georgia has been looking at Europe, at NATO and that is not what President Putin's preference is in foreign policy. So I think they will use it not so much to promote or advance Russia's national interest because Abkhazia and South Ossetia don't really play much of a role in the Russian influence per se but it's more to block Georgia as a role model of a westernising nation. So that where I think the core of the activities is."
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