13 Nov 2024

What are betting markets and are they more accurate than polling?

From Nights, 10:30 pm on 13 November 2024

Other than Donald Trump and the Republican party one of the big winners from the US election was a trader from France known as Theo.

The Frenchman is estimated to have made over $85 million US after placing bets on President Trump ultimately triumphing over Kamala Harris.

He placed those bets on a prediction market called Polymarket, one of several websites where people could bet on the outcome of the election.

A big proponent of these markets and someone who understands how they work is the Chief Economist at The New Zealand Initiative Eric Crampton.

He speaks to Emile Donovan.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. - Republican former president Donald Trump closed in on a new term in the White House early November 6, 2024, just needing a handful of electoral votes to defeat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

Photo: AFP / Jim Watson