Photo: Supplied
In a fictionalised account set a little over two years from now, the city of Narva in Estonia wakes to explosions.
It's being attacked by Russia - and is conquered in a matter of hours.
The same night, another city on the island of Hiiumaa is also taken - giving Russia the ability to impose a naval blockade of the Baltic states.
This is the basis of a future imagined by political scientist Dr Carlo Masala in his book 'If Russia Wins: A scenario'.
It's predicated on what could happen, if the conflict in Ukraine is settled on terms advantageous to Russia. How far is NATO really prepared to go to defend one of its member states?
How sound is the commitment of the US, in particular?
Carlo Masala is Professor for International Politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich.
He joins Kathryn to talk about his scenario and its relation to recent developments in the Ukraine conflict and within Europe.
