NZ, Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines should be less at risk of US tariffs, as they generally have low import tariffs, say economists. Photo: 123RF
- S&P Global Ratings expects New Zealand less affected by US tariffs
- NZ among handful in Asia-Pacific dodging worst fall-out, because no big trade surpluses with US
- US tariffs likely to squeeze not choke growth in region
- S&P sees NZ economy growing at average 2.3 percent annually 2026-28
New Zealand may escape relatively lightly from any US tariffs imposed on the Asia-Pacific region, according to a new report.
Leading credit agency S&P Global Ratings believes the region - which contains many of New Zealand's major trading partners - will feel a squeeze from US tariffs, but will not be choked by them
S&P Asia-Pacific chief economist Louis Kuijs said there was a resilience about the region, which would likely see domestic demand counter any weakness in exports caused by the tariffs.
"Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand and the Philippines should be less at risk of U.S. tariffs, as they generally have low import tariffs, [and] no major bilateral goods surplus with the U.S.
"Still, all of Asia-Pacific will feel the indirect impact of tariff turmoil. Slower growth internationally as a result of trade friction and the associated uncertainty will weigh on exports," Kuijs said.
He said China was a prime target for the tariffs, but looked in better than expected shape to withstand them with stronger government stimulus to support domestic demand, but warned that the knock on effects would see Chinese producers looking for other markets than the US."
Better economic times coming
S&P trimmed its forecasts for growth for most economies in the region but mentioned New Zealand was starting from a weaker position than most of the region.
"Weak activity in the second half of 2024 also sapped momentum from 2025 growth, while uncertainty and weak domestic demand delay the recovery," the report said.
It picked 1.5 percent growth in New Zealand this year rising to 2.3 percent in each of the following three years, while inflation was picked to stay around the Reserve Bank's 2 percent target, while official cash rate would be cut to 3 percent this year and be held there through to 2028.
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