New data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development shows the average New Zealand tenancy is now 50 months long, up from 28 in 2010. Photo: RNZ / REECE BAKER
Wellington woman Carla has been renting her Ngaio property for 20 years.
She had just moved to New Zealand when she found it, while searching for a temporary place to live.
"It was either the second or third place we viewed. We liked the house, easy train access, the local library and playgrounds. We didn't have a car. We said we wanted it, and got it… it sounds like a fairy tale."
Over the time she's been renting, her rent hasn't lifted a lot.
"I fully acknowledge that we are ridiculously lucky in this. But I worked very hard to be a good tenant. We have a good trust between us at this point.
"If something breaks, I email him to let him know, arrange for it to be fixed, then send him the bill to pay. He has told me that he won't raise the rent unless his expenses change. His insurance on the house went up last year, so he raised the rent to cover that cost but explained it to me."
She said she now paid significantly less than market rent but the house was a bit scruffy and she took care of any small maintenance issues. "He has very little work to do. For my family, it's the perfect arrangement."
She said she couldn't image how much harder or more stressful life would have been if she had to worry about housing or move frequently while raising her children, who are now 16 and 20.
While Carla, who did not want to be identified, knew her story was unusual, she didn't realise how unusual.
Half of New Zealand tenancies are less than two years old, and just 1 percent have been in place for between 216 and 228 months, or more than 18 years. Nine percent have been in place for more than 120 months.
Data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development shows the average New Zealand tenancy is now 50 months long, up from 28 in 2010.
The median is 25, up from 14 in 2010.
Kelvin Davidson, chief economist at property data firm CoreLogic said while the tenancy length had increased, it was still "not that long" overall - and if most people were moving every two years, that was an upheaval. "From a tenant perspective it's good that it's doubled but it's still not ideal."
He said it probably aligned with other housing affordability measures that had worsened over the same 15-year period.
It was taking longer for people to save a deposit to buy a house, he said - about 10 years compared to seven in 2010. "It was as high as 13 or 14 when prices were at their peak."
Some market settings had also changed to be more favourable for tenants and provide more security of tenure. "Maybe over time landlords have got more scientific and run the numbers - on a standard rental property even a vacancy of two weeks is expensive.
"People have probably woken up and realised vacancy does hurt so anything they can do to keep the tenant for longer is going to help with returns."
Davidson said it was a relatively clear trend and there was no reason to think it would turn around again. Moves such as more build-to-rent properties were likely to increase tenancy length, too, he said.
Sarina Gibbon, general manager of the Auckland Property Investors Association agreed unaffordability of housing was likely to mean people were renting for longer before they could buy.
"At the same time, work has changed dramatically. The younger workforce with their gig jobs and digital nomad lifestyles often value being able to move around more than they value owning a house. Renting is more socially palatable to this generation than those that came before them.
"What's interesting is that longer tenancies actually work well for everyone involved. Landlords get that steady income without the hassle of constantly finding new tenants, while renters get to put down roots and create a real home."
She said staying in one tenancy for longer often meant people paid less in rent, as had been Carla's experience.
"Landlords typically keep rent increases modest for good tenants, saving their big hikes for when someone moves out. So hopping between rentals can actually cost you more in the long run.
"I think we're seeing a fundamental change in how Kiwis think about housing. Renting used to be just a step on the ladder to buying. Now, for many, it's simply a practical long-term housing solution. What I'd love to see emerging from this shift is a diversification of investments and an end to the great Kiwi obsession with property. We need to stop housing from being a political fiddle for the left and right because real people's lives are at stake here."
Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, said there should be some caution around the data.
"If there is any incidence of old bonds not being removed from the system, due to not being claimed, or an administrative error, then the apparent average/median time for tenancy length is naturally going to increase as the database gets older."
But he said, assuming that was not happening, it could show two possible things.
"Firstly, that people are renting for longer than they did in the past, which would be an unsurprising outcome given the increase in house prices relative to incomes and the increased incidence of renting over time.
"The figures also suggest that people are not only renting for longer, but remaining in the same rental property for longer on average - an outcome that would also be consistent with more people renting for longer in life. For example, young people are often relatively mobile, with job changes and rising incomes likely to lead to changes in their renting situation - perhaps to another city, or to a higher-quality property as they can afford it. However, once people have children, for example, they are less likely to want to move, given the disruption that might be caused by children having to change school."
As for Carla, she says she'll stay a while longer. "We'd love to own and are saving but the cost … yikes. I have home-schooled my kids so have only worked part-time through their lives."
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