Wellington city councillors say a crucial vote over the sale of the Wellington airport shares is likely to be neck-and-neck.
The City Council will decide on Thursday whether to stick with the decision set in the Long Term Plan to sell the 34 percent stake in Wellington airport, or stop the sale.
Behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring to stop the vote has continued up to the last minute.
A Notice of Motion to stop the sale, filed by Labour's southern ward councillor Nureddin Abdurahman, has previously been signed by a majority of nine councillors.
Green Māori ward councillor Nīkau Wi Neera, who is opposed to the asset sale, said he was undecided how he would vote.
He was unhappy with the process, which excluded council's mana whenua representatives, who can only vote at committee meetings not meetings of the full council.
RNZ understands a group of left-bloc councillors had tried to stop or re-schedule the vote in a way that could include the mana whenua vote. But council rules dictate that only the person who filed of the Notice of Motion can withdraw it, and under the Local Government Act asset sales can be sold only through decisions of the full council.
Wi Neera said the vote was critical for Wellingtonians.
"It's the largest asset we hold on their behalf, it's the biggest thing that we have."
Officials recommended the council sell the shares to diversify its investment portfolio and deal with the city's growing insurance gap.
The council is underinsured by $2.6 billion in the event of a one-in-1000-year natural disaster.
Officials recommended the money from the share sale should go into a perpetual investment fund as a form of self-insurance.
Strategic asset
Abdurahman said the airport was a strategic asset which shouldn't be taken out of public ownership.
"The airport return last year was $250 for every household, that is more than $20 million - why are we selling this?"
He said the 34 percent share meant the council had some say in how the airport was run.
Independent eastern ward councillor Sarah Free supports selling the airport shares at this stage.
Free said it was risky to have the majority of council's investments in one asset which would be exposed if a disaster struck.
"If you had a massive earthquake, which we could do, the airport might be worth nothing, at the very time we might want some money to fix whatever might go wrong."
The council's shares have been valued at between $278m and $496m.
Council debt
Officials warn if the share are not sold the council may have to triple its debt ceiling or cut hundreds of millions of dollars of projects - including the cycleways programme, the Golden Mile upgrades and the Khandallah Pool strengthening.
Free said the sale had created unlikely alliances around the council table, with groups of left and right wing councillors both voting to stop it for different reasons. She expected the vote to be very close.
"Some people who have moved on the left of the council are ideologically opposed to any asset sale even if it's a company like the airport which we don't have any control over.
"Then there's the right-wing councillors who can see if we don't sell the airport, we are going to have to trim a whole lot out of our budget - and they want to stop spending."
Councillors Nicola Young, Diane Calvert and Tony Randle are among those who have changed their mind about the vote since the previous one in June.
Calvert and Randle told RNZ they were promised spending would be limited if the shares were sold.
Randle said he was unhappy the debt headroom in the Long Term Plan had increased from $272 million, and he doesn't want more spending on projects like the Zero Waste Project or Golden Mile upgrades.
"We shouldn't be selling shares to spend money; we should be selling the shares to improve the resilience of the city."
Iona Pannett said she wasn't supportive of selling the shares and doubted putting them in an investment fund would cover tens of billions of dollars of damage wrought by a massive natural disaster.
How councillors intend to vote
RNZ asked all councillors how they intended to vote.
Those who said they were intending to vote for the motion to stop the sale were Nureddin Abdurahman, Diane Calvert, Ray Chung, Tony Randle and Nicola Young.
Councillors Teri O'Neill and Iona Pannett would not reveal how they intended to vote, but both recognised the importance of keeping the airport shares.
Those who said they intended voting against the motion were Tim Brown, John Apanowicz, Sarah Free, Geordie Rogers, Rebecca Matthews, and Deputy Mayor Laurie Foon.
Nīkau Wi Neera said he was undecided, while Ben McNulty did not respond to requests for comment.
Mayor Tory Whanau was approached for an interview but declined, saying her diary was full.