Oscars 2025: Who will win and who should win and how do I watch in NZ?

Get your popcorn popping - it's almost time for Hollywood to crown the year's best films.

The 97th annual Academy Awards are Monday, 3 March NZT, and we're here to look at the biggest controversies, pick some likely winners, and see if New Zealand has any chance at Oscar gold at the big event.

• RNZ will live blog the Oscars on Monday 3 March from noon.
• The red carpet and ceremony can be watched in NZ on Disney+ streaming.
• Who are the nominees: Full list
• Wētā FX up for several Oscars

So what's everyone talking about this year?

This is one of the least predictable Oscars ceremonies of recent years, where past juggernauts like Oppenheimer have dashed all the way to the winners' podium.

The big talking point is the stunning rise and fall of Spanish-language musical/thriller Emilia Pérez, about a Mexican gangster who transitions into a woman. It bagged a near record 13 nominations but has since seen its campaign dramatically collapse. A social media scandal involving racist past social media posts from the movie's star Karla Sofia Gascón - the first transgender actress nominated - has firmly scuttled her Best Actress chances, and the movie itself seems to be one of the most divisive Oscar nominees in years, scoring a mere 2.1 out of 5 stars average on popular movie review website Letterboxd. It's been widely criticised for its portrayal of trans issues and Mexican culture and its poor musical numbers.

At the moment, director Sean Baker's comedy/drama twisted love story Anora has picked up several major awards and is seen as the front-runner, but it's still a pretty open field.

Is New Zealand in the mix at all this year?

Unfortunately, there's no Dame Jane Campion this year to represent, so Aotearoa's best shot is with our special effects stalwarts Wētā FX. They've been nominated for Best Special Effects for three movies, Alien: Romulus, Better Man and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.

Head of VFX Matt Aitken said this year Wētā FX have more people nominated for the Oscar than at any other point in their history. Wētā has previously won seven Academy Awards for Visual Effects.

Wētā technically have a 60 percent chance of winning with three of the five nods in the category - although fellow nominee Dune: Part Two might challenge that.

Well, how do I watch the Oscars?

They air from about midday on Monday 3 March and in New Zealand will be streaming on Disney+. RNZ will also be live-blogging the event - with plenty of thoughts to unpack on the red carpet, a gallery of the must-see looks and clever commentary as the awards unfold.

So what will win Best Picture?

Reader beware: Every one of these picks is subjective and quite possibly wrong.

For Best Picture, there are 10 nominees, including crowd-pleasing hits like Wicked and Dune: Part Two and extreme long shots like The Nickel Boys, but realistically only three of them appear to have a shot unless that Emilia Pérez backlash is wildly overblown.

The Brutalist is a stylish and towering 3-hour plus epic about an immigrant architect, Conclave takes us behind the curtain in a wild battle to name the next pope, while Anora is an earthy, bold story of a New York sex escort who falls in love with the son of a wealthy Russian businessman.

We may be going out on a huge limb here, but it feels like while Anora has run the table at many recent awards, its sex worker themes, aggressive energy and heavy profanity may turn off older Academy members, who may turn to a more "traditional" Oscar winner instead for Best Picture.

While The Brutalist is a masterpiece of towering ambition and unforgettable imagery, it is possible that an impeccably acted, gorgeous looking old-school thriller with a more restrained message of tolerance might sneak to the top of the table - which gives papal succession drama Conclave a very thin edge. Conclave also recently took home the British BAFTA for best film.

But it's still a close race. Heck, the Academy might go full populist and just hand the prize to Wicked in a real shocker.

Will win:Conclave

Should win:The Brutalist

Best Actor and Best Actress

Adrien Brody is always watchable even in a mediocre movie. He was the youngest ever Best Actor Oscar winner way back in 2003 in The Pianist, and is firmly lined up to take his second win. In The Brutalist, an apparently ageless Brody, now 51, takes us on an epic journey of a Holocaust survivor's rebirth in America. By equal turns confident, sly and heartbroken, Brody dominates The Brutalist's entire 210-minute run time. The main chance for an upset is Timothée Chalamet's remarkable young Bob Dylan impersonation in the hugely entertaining A Complete Unknown, but at 29, Chalamet's going to have many other chances.

Will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Should win: Adrien Brody

For Best Actress, Demi Moore has been front and centre for months with her vanity-free portrait of an ageing star who goes to horrific lengths to stay young in The Substance. It's full-on goopy body horror which the Academy rarely recognises, though. Moore is widely liked and everyone loves a good comeback story, so she could well win. But I keep thinking about Mikey Madison's sex worker in Anora, who carries the whole movie on her journey from puppy love to foul-mouthed warrior to battered victim. It's a layered, tremendous turn in the time-worn movie cliché of "hooker with a heart of gold". For a dark horse pick, Fernanda Torres in Brazilian film I'm Still Here has also been getting a lot of chatter.

Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance

Should win: Mikey Madison, Anora

Best Supporting Actor and Actress

Sometimes, a winner is anointed early on in the Oscars process and just stays there the whole time. Kieran Culkin in the comedy/drama A Real Pain has been that one this year, and feels like the statue was already engraved with his name. However, don't overlook acting veteran Edward Norton as folk singer Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown. Norton really captures Seeger's mix of corny charm and intense sincerity, he's somehow never won an Oscar, and it might be seen as the token award the picture takes home.

Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Should win: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

For best supporting actress, Emilia Pérez co-star Zoe Saldaña has also been consistently tipped this year, and could also be the only major award that beleaguered picture takes. The star of Star Trek, Avatar and Marvel movies is glammed down and sings and dances as a put-upon lawyer. She also looks likely to be the only person of colour to win an acting award this year. Still, momentum for Isabella Rosellini as a determined nun in Conclave has also been growing as a possible spoiler.

Will win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Should win: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Best Director

Even if it doesn't win best picture, it's hard not to see Brady Corbet awarded for his direction of The Brutalist, which feels like a grand throwback to the three-hour epics of the 1960s, complete with intermission. It's also a distinct and unforgettable vision of both obsession and trauma, with an ambition that deserves rewarding. But if Anora runs the table, then its director Sean Baker may take the directing prize too.

However, Denis Villeneuve was snubbed entirely for his direction of Best Picture nominee Dune: Part Two. Successfully bringing one of science-fiction's most acclaimed and complex books to the screen in visually dazzling fashion feels like it deserved a Return Of The King-style coronation.

Will win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Should win: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

So where can I watch these movies?

Best picture nominees The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, I'm Still Here, Sing Sing and A Real Pain are still in some cinemas. Check your local theatre.

Fellow multiple nominees Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Apprentice and other nominees can be purchased for rental on streaming services.

The Substance is available to watch on TVNZ+ on 27 February and Dune: Part Two is viewable with a Neon subscription.

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