Flooding is one of the natural disasters faced by Thames-Coromandel. Photo: Monika Lange, via Facebook
A new Waikato Regional Council report shows Thames-Coromandel District is highly exposed to eight out of 10 main climate-related hazards.
All roads in the district are also at risk from hazards, with communities likely to be isolated.
The regional council found Thames-Coromandel had large and ongoing exposure to flooding, coastal hazards, extreme weather, higher temperatures, drought, groundwater rise, landslides and marine heatwaves, but the results weren't a surprise to those working in the district, who said it urgently needed to start making plans and taking action.
Thames-Coromandel District Council climate change programme manager Amon Martin said climate change would have a huge potential impact on the district.
"It's a really big challenge for us and there will need to be change going into the future," he said.
Thames-Coromandel has 400km of coastline, a mountain range down the middle and small communities scattered along the coastlines.
Martin said the local council was very aware on the hazards facing the district for at least a decade. He said the response would need to be cross-agency and involve the whole community.
"NZTA play a big part for our district in terms of providing roading infrastructure, but so does Waikato Regional Council. They provide flood protection from our streams, then there are businesses and communities and iwi across the district, all of those need to work together."
Understanding who has the responsibility for leading different work wasn't always clear.
"A lot of the legislation is enabling, but not requiring, so there aren't definitive roles currently," Martin said. "I see that as one of the immediate challenges."
New Zealand Transport Agency Waikato system manager Andy Oakley said the amount of rain in Thames-Coromandel hadn't necessarily increased, but it came in more intense bursts. The district was top of his list, when looking at the effects of coastal flooding and unstable land, and the state highway network had been identified as needing increased resilience.
"There are three new bridges being [replaced] and there is still ongoing reliance repairs after the 2023 storms, so in the 10-25 year term, absolutely resilience is what we are looking at," Oakley said. "Beyond that, there are so many factors out of our control and we will have to assess that as we move forward."
He said NZTA would have invested more than $100 million in resilience work in Thames-Coromandel in response to the 2023 floods.
Looking forward, the costs facing Thames-Coromandel because of climate change were significant, but Martin said the most effective way to reduce costs was to make the best use of time by responding with urgency to the hazards we know of now.
"Understanding the hazard areas now means you don't need to build houses in the wrong places, you can transition infrastructure when it's up for renewal to minimise costs. You can do a lot of things to reduce the costs, if you understand the challenges."
Waikato professor of environmental planning Iain White said information from the regional climate hazards report would help council's make better planning decisions.
"This is where I generally come in - to try and make sure that the liability we pass on to future generations is less then it could have been by making smart decisions now."
However, there are many places in New Zealand - like Thames-Coromandel - with high exposure to natural hazards, but a low taxpayer base.
"How much do we pay now?" White said. "How much should that cost go to future generations, as things become more apparent?
"It's quite complex decisions about who pays when and when do we need to invest."
Despite the bleak outlook, Martin said there were opportunities for growth and development.
"There isn't hazards in every space across the district," he said. "There are places that are appropriate to build and grow, so you shouldn't get stuck in the fact that this is a big challenge.
"There are ways to work through it and do the best for our community."
As a nation of people who love living right on the water, that may require an attitude shift.
"It's almost a change management approach required for the whole country," Martin said. "Stop and think about where you want to live, what the risks are, what you can do personally and whether that is a place you are willing to accept."
White said knowing the risks - for example of flooding or isolation, if you live by the coast - should change people's behaviour or markets, but the reality was different.
"In lots of areas, it hasn't panned out that way," he said. "It's partly because, though you may get a higher risk of flooding, you get a higher amenity value of being on the coast, so it's swings and roundabouts.
"For some people, that's something they are perfectly willing to take on."
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