Christopher Luxon. File photo. Photo: RNZ / Marika Khabazi
Analysis - A record-low rating of government performance will be unwelcome news for Christopher Luxon in a political week focused offshore.
He made a point of campaigning on the cost of living at the election, inextricably tying his government's fortunes to a measure largely under the control of the independent Reserve Bank and the vagaries of global economics.
So it will be troubling that his party's primary saving grace out of the Ipsos Issues Monitor survey - that New Zealanders are increasingly less concerned about the cost of living - is undercut by falling confidence in National's ability to handle it.
New Zealanders' rating of the government's performance over the prior six months hit its lowest result yet of 4.2 out of 10, dropping a statistically significant five percentage points. Zero is "abysmal", 10 is "outstanding". Ipsos began measuring ratings of the government in July 2017. The question was reworded in February 2024. Photo: Ipsos / NZ Issues Monitor / February 2025
Adding to National's woes, its rating has fallen for each of the other top-five concerns. Direct competitor Labour held steady on two of those, lost less ground than National on the others, and improved on all 15 of the other top-20 issues - flipping seven of them from blue to red.
With the majority of Trump's tariffs yet to take effect, and the reciprocal tariffs from affected countries likely to also impact New Zealand exports and imports, it may not be a surprise to see that even as worry about inflation wanes, more general fears around the economy continue to grow.
Labour was rated best able to manage nine of the issues ranked 6th to 20th most pressing for New Zealanders, and top-equal with National on fuel. Photo: Ipsos / NZ Issues Monitor / February 2025
National is still seven points ahead of Labour on economic management, but its rating is steadily falling while Labour's is holding steady.
Luxon just last week was playing down a new negative poll from his party's pollster, Curia - saying polls "bounce around" and he was focused on the economy.
RNZ's Corin Dann the next day took this to its logical conclusion: "So the poor poll result's the result of the fact you haven't fixed the economy?"
Luxon's answer, that inflation is slowing, but it's yet to really be felt in household budgets, lines up with a strategy of riding the cyclical economic wave back to the government benches.
Thursday's news of GDP turning a corner more sharply than expected certainly supports the wisdom of such an approach, but it's worth keeping in mind the December result follows a sharper-than-expected economic shrinkage in the previous quarter.
The point is polls are not the only thing that "bounce around" and in both cases, it's the trends that matter.
The negative headlines in health have also hardly slowed, with public concern hitting a new high of 40 percent last August and increasing marginally since then.
National's downward trajectory on its health expertise took another four-point hit in the latest survey, while Labour's been consistently increasing or holding steady for the past year.
This is the first edition of the survey since Simeon Brown took over as Health Minister from Northland doctor Shane Reti. He is seen as less embedded in the sector, but a more strategic and politically attuned operator.
He will be facing growing pressure, and in recent weeks - not covered by the survey's polling period - has begun a rolling maul of announcements, including plans to introduce a new target for GP waiting times.
Whether that has a noticeable effect on polling, or if voter sentiment on the topic has already become bedded in, will be one to watch.
On this and housing, Luxon and his party have a difficult task in rebuilding voters' confidence. At this point being seen as not mismanaging the problem may not be enough - they'll need to show they can fix it.
At the same time, they'll need to avoid any coalition missteps on those topics National sells itself as good at dealing with - like the economy, and crime - or the party will suffer come election time.
Trump's unpredictability inspires unpredictable responses, so on the economy at least the strategy of banking on better times faces different - but still politically dangerous - global headwinds to those that helped crater Labour's support in 2023.
Luxon's trip to India this week - and particularly the announcement of the start of trade agreement negotiations - therefore seems perfectly timed.
Progress on a much-hyped trade deal will, however, need to be rapid if he's to repair polling trends in time for Election Day.
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