Photo: Andrew Dalton - TVNZ
Winston Peters would keep his kingmaker role, the Newshub-Reid Research poll suggests, although the left bloc is on the rise.
Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori would get more seats than National and ACT based on these numbers, but either side would need Peters to form a government - and he's long ruled out working with Labour.
- National: 34.5 percent, down 4.6 points (43 seats)
- Labour: 27.5 percent, up 1 point (35 seats)
- Greens: 14.9 percent, up 0.7 points (19 seats)
- ACT: 8.8 percent, steady (11 seats)
- NZ First: 6.8 percent, up 1.6 points (9 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 2.7 percent, up 0.5 points (3 seats)
Likely outside of Parliament, The Opportunities Party was up 0.3 points to 2.2, while Liz Gunn's NZ Loyal was steady on 1.4 percent and other minor parties not registering significant enough support.
If replicated on election day, this result would have National and ACT on a combined 54 seats.
That compares to a Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori grouping on 57 - higher than the right bloc but still short of the 61 seats needed for government.
Presuming he chose to work with National and ACT after the election, Peters would bring the right bloc's seats up to 63.
Preferred prime minister:
- Christopher Luxon: 23.6 percent - down 0.4 points
- Chris Hipkins: 22.2 percent - up 3.1 points
- Winston Peters: 5 percent
- David Seymour: 4.2 percent
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 3.7 percent
- Marama Davidson: 2.9 percent
- James Shaw: 1.2 percent
The poll surveyed about 1000 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. It was conducted between 5 and 10 October.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
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