Christopher Luxon heads to Washington as pressure mounts on Joe Biden

Analysis - The prime minister sets off for Washington DC on Monday evening for what will be his debut rubbing shoulders with both European and US leaders.

Christopher Luxon is optimistic he will get a face-to-face with his US counterpart, Joe Biden, but as is often the case with these summits, exactly who will make time for him at NATO will not be known until the eleventh hour.

In the meantime, New Zealand's foreign affairs officials work around the clock to try and secure, at the least, a pull-aside with Biden on the margins of the summit while striving for the ultimate prize - a sit-down in the Oval Office.

With so much attention still on Biden a week after his disastrous debate performance against Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump, it won't be easy navigating time with the leader.

An interview Biden gave to ABC News at the weekend has done little to quell concerns.

With a White House visit even less likely if Trump were to win the election later this year, this could be Luxon's only chance, in this term of government, to get to the Oval Office.

It's something his predecessors Jacinda Ardern and John Key both achieved and will be high on Luxon's political wish-list.

Given the chaos surrounding Biden and the Democrats, and questions over whether the president is fit for office, it wouldn't come as a surprise if his meetings with world leaders are significantly reduced.

If Luxon misses out on his moment pressing the flesh with the US president, Otago University professor of international relations Robert Patman says people shouldn't read too much into it.

"Mr Biden's in an election year and been given an ultimatum by the Democratic leadership that he's got to up his game after a disastrous debate performance," he told RNZ.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Mr Biden found half an hour and speaks to Mr Luxon, but it may be that he meets with the Secretary of State or another high Cabinet member, because Mr Biden has got a lot of ground to make up quickly politically and that will be his central concern at the moment."

Patman believes both Biden and Luxon are leaders who put "a lot of emphasis on personal friendships and relationships".

"Mr Biden is very much of that style, interacting with people he puts his hand on their shoulder, he's very much a touchy sort of person and I think he will be keen to meet Mr Luxon if he can.

"I don't think we should interpret it as a snub to New Zealand if the schedules can't converge for them to have a meeting."

When Ardern was invited to the Oval Office to meet with Biden in 2022, the President had just returned from Texas where he was responding to the Uvalde school shooting that left 19 students and two teachers dead.

Ardern spent much of her time with Biden, who was trying to tighten his own country's gun laws, talking about her experience dealing with gun reform in the aftermath of the 15 March terror attacks.

Luxon's visit to the US comes just a week after New Zealander Patricia McKay, 68, died outside a mall in Newport Beach, California during an attempted robbery.

She was killed when she was hit by one of the alleged offenders' cars, while her husband Doug McKay, 69, had a gun held to his head.

Doug McKay was formerly the chair of the BNZ board and Luxon knew the couple well.

Luxon is expected to meet with US legislators while in Washington DC and the tragic and shocking circumstances around McKay's death will almost certainly be raised with the prime minister.

New faces and different approaches

Luxon will also hope to meet with the new UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer after Labour won a landslide victory over Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party on Friday.

Fresh off a weekend pulling together his new Cabinet, Starmer has jetted to the US for the NATO summit.

While Starmer is incredibly new to the role, Luxon has also only been prime minister for little over six months and this summit will be his first on an international scale standing side-by-side with leaders of some of the biggest global economies.

NATO is a North Atlantic collective and this year is its 75th anniversary of forming. In 2022, Ardern was the first New Zealand prime minister to attend the summit after the group extended an invitation to allies in the Indo-Pacific.

Foreign policy in New Zealand is for the most part bipartisan and Patman doesn't think Luxon will necessarily take a different approach at NATO to that of Ardern or former prime minister Chris Hipkins, who also attended previously.

But Patman told RNZ there "may be a difference of emphasis on how far they may be prepared to back the United States".

He said the team of Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters "might go further in responding to US foreign policy initiatives than Labour".

"For example, New Zealand was the first member of the Five Eyes to call for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, effectively opposing US diplomacy in the UN.

"Nevertheless, we did respond to a US request to send six NZDF personnel to counter the activities of the Houthis - the Yemeni rebel group - in the Red Sea area.

"Given that the US kept vetoing the demands for the ceasefire, many people were puzzled as to why the National government was prepared to do that."

He didn't see the coalition government's approach being about "major policy shifts" however, simply a change in emphasis.

What's on the agenda?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is expected to be the biggest issue at this year's NATO summit along with China's ever-growing influence, including its leader Xi Jinping's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Patman told RNZ he anticipates NATO partners will "reaffirm their absolutely steadfast support for Ukraine's attempt to reject invading Russians from their country".

"I think it will be done in a way to try and reassure Ukraine, which is obviously very concerned with the prospect of a Trump administration."

"They will also be discussing the serious security situation developing in the South China Seas, particularly the clashes between China and the Philippines."

Patman says the Gaza situation "ought to be discussed" but predicts it probably won't be.

At last year's summit, Sweden and Finland were granted membership of NATO, and while Ukraine continues to pitch to join, that doesn't look set to transpire.

While there's a lot of support for Ukraine and fight against Russia, there are countries - mainly Germany and the United States - that worry about the timing of it joining now.

There have been media reports that NATO officials have told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky not to repeat his calls for membership because it won't be happening, at least for now.

In addition to the summit Luxon will take part in the Indo-Pacific 4 (IP-4) meeting alongside Japan and South Korea's leaders. Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles will represent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who has declined the invitation and is facing immense pressure at home for doing so.

This is the third time the Indo-Pacific partners have been invited to the North Atlantic summit.

On Albanese not attending, Patman said it's clear the Australian Prime Minister has put domestic problems ahead of the NATO summit and chosen to stay home.

He says that's not uncommon and New Zealand has done that previously too, choosing not to have a prime minister visit Kyiv at the height of the Ukraine conflict, like so many other leaders did.

Patman told RNZ things could be quite different for New Zealand, and the other Indo-Pacific nations, if Trump wins the US election in November, with a promise to put a 10 percent surcharge on all imports.

That would seriously impact trade and for that reason, he says it's important to be at NATO and keeping on top of European relationships.

New Zealand's role to play

Patman stresses the rules-based order is very much under strain globally and New Zealand has a big role to play in how to manage that.

"I do think New Zealand must stop thinking of itself as a geographically isolated country, which is a long way away from these hotspots. We're directly affected in so many ways by events in Europe and indeed in the Indo-Pacific region.

"The two things are much more linked than some of our politicians often realise.

"Politicians and people seem to think other countries don't notice what's going on in New Zealand, but they certainly do and the degree of scrutiny on New Zealand is much greater than any of us realise."

While the world applauded New Zealand over how it handled both the 15 March terror attacks and the Covid pandemic, Patman says on the flipside the world also notices "when we don't speak up or act in a way that's consistent".

"We're a trading nation and it's very important we're in the mix and letting people know our views on things like the rules-based order."

Patman also told RNZ that New Zealand has a "huge stake in the failure of Mr Putin in Ukraine".

The rules-based order is being challenged by Russia and China, and Patman says that is "challenging the very basis of New Zealand foreign policy, and we should have no illusions about that".

"The Ukraine conflict has huge implications for the Indo-Pacific. After all, two countries in the Indo-Pacific, the two most important countries are ones which have sided with Putin, namely China and India.

"Now, if Putin is defeated that will send a very strong message to Xi Jinping. It will make him much more careful about being too confrontational towards Taiwan.

"So, it's a lot at stake here so I do think that it's important that Mr Luxon is attending NATO," he told RNZ.

Speaking to media ahead of his trip, Luxon said attending NATO and the IP-4 meetings was about meeting with like-minded countries.

"It's an opportunity for us to talk about conflicts we see, particularly around Ukraine, but it's also a chance for us to talk about the rules-based system - the values that make us like-minded countries, and that's where I expect the discussions will go."

While he expected the Israel and Gaza conflict would come up in conversation, he caveated it by saying the meetings were very much a "Euro-Atlantic focus".

Later in the week Luxon will take off his diplomacy hat and shift into business mode when he stops in San Francisco on his way home to meet with potential investors he'll be trying to woo New Zealand's way.

The one certainty for the prime minister with this trip abroad, compared to others, is that he won't be left standing up world leaders due to potential Defence Force plane breakdowns.

Luxon will travel commercially to the United States and while a New Zealand press contingent will join him, there won't be a business delegation attending.

It will put all eyes firmly on the Prime Minister and the relationships he can progress both diplomatically and economically after campaigning and promising to lift the country's game on the international stage.