Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi and ACT leader David Seymour in Parliament in August last year. Photo: VNP / Phil Smith
The latest Taxpayers-Union Curia poll shows bumps for ACT and Te Pāti Māori after the hīkoi and introduction of the Treaty Principles Bill last month.
It comes at the expense of both main parties - reversing the trend of the previous month - with smaller falls in support for the Greens and New Zealand First. The coalition parties would still have enough seats to hold government, under the poll's numbers.
- National: 34.2 percent, down 4.6 percentage points (44 seats)
- Labour: 26.9 percent, down 4.6 (34 seats)
- ACT: 13 percent, up 4.5 (17 seats)
- Greens: 8.3 percent, down 1 (11 seats)
- NZ First: 5.4 percent, down 1.1 (7 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 5.5 percent, up 3 (7 seats)
It is the first time ACT has overtaken the Greens since February under the Curia poll.
The results assume all electorate seats are held, and 5.4 percent were undecided on the party vote question.
Compared to the current Parliament, National would have four fewer seats, Labour would see no change, ACT would have six extra seats, the Greens would have four fewer, NZ First would have one fewer, and Te Pāti Māori would have one more.
Between them, the coalition parties would have 68 seats, more than enough to form a government.
For parties outside Parliament, Outdoors and Freedom was on 2 percentage points (+0.7 points), TOP was on 1.1 (+0.2), and Vision NZ was on 0.2 (-0.2).
Despite taking a hit on the party ratings, Labour's Chris Hipkins is gaining ground on the preferred prime minister ratings compared to National's Christopher Luxon.
Preferred prime minister:
- Christopher Luxon: 27.1 percent - up 0.6 points
- Chris Hipkins: 19.9 percent - up 4.4
- Winston Peters: 5.8 percent, down 0.5
- David Seymour: 5.8 percent, down 1.6
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 4.5 percent, down 0.7
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 1 and Tuesday 3 December 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand. It recently resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
