The government says it is still got time to develop emissions policies, but the Climate Change Commission has said action needs to start now. File photo. Photo: 123RF
The government's new emissions cutting plan has moved the country closer to its climate targets, by about seven million tonnes of emissions.
But it is still not on track to meet the crucial emissions budget for 2031-2035, by some nine million tonnes of planet heating gases.
The plan reveals flagship policies - such as Electrify NZ and the aim of having 10,000 EV chargers by 2030 - will have a comparatively tiny impact on emissions over the next five years.
Plans to tackle waste and allow fossil fuel companies to pump CO2 underground could achieve more - with the whole package adding up to about three million tonnes of emissions savings in total from 2026-2030.
That gets the country on track to meet its next five-year budget, but its still way off target for the budget after that.
The government says it is still got time to develop policies, but the Climate Change Commission has said action needs to start now to get changes embedded.
Modelling released with the plan show the government's goal to aim for 10,000 EV chargers in the country by 2030 to reduce "range anxiety" would see the proportion of vehicle kilometres driven in EVs rise from 9 per cent to 9.2 per cent by 2030, leading to a minor saving of planet-heating gases.
It is a similar story for Electrify NZ, a plan to bolster renewables which includes speeding up consents for new renewable electricity.
Each of those policies promises total savings of 100,000-200,000 tonnes of emissions apiece across the whole five years of the government's newly-minted next emissions plan, covering 2026-2030.
New Zealand's emissions last year were almost 77 million tonnes.
By 2031, Electrify NZ looks set to be more impactful with an estimated 1.6 million tonnes of savings from 2031-5 because of lower consenting costs. Official analysis with the plan says this would make developing renewable infrastructure slightly cheaper - though not faster - because development tends to wait for demand. The EV chargers' impact would grow to about 200,000 tonnes savings over that same period, and the analysis suggests the extra chargers will reduce range anxiety.
More impactful in emissions-cutting terms were plans to tackle organic waste and refrigerant gases, and allow fossil fuel companies to capture their carbon dioxide emissions and pump them underground.
Government analysts believe the coalition's move to allow carbon capture and storage will most likely result in one high-emitting gas field deciding to capture its carbon dioxide emissions and pump them underground to be stored for the long term, in around 2027. That would save about one million tonnes of planet-heating emissions from reaching the atmosphere between 2026 and 2030, and save a similar amount again during the five years after that.
Adding a product stewardship scheme requiring capture of potent refrigerant gases (a saving of 0.4 million tonnes), a boost to grants given for minimising waste, and stricter controls on landfill gas, the whole package adds up to around 3 million tonnes of emissions savings in total during 2026-2030 - including the chargers, Electrify NZ and moves to tighten up the supply of carbon credits under the ETS.
That still leaves a gap of 84 million tonnes between what New Zealand is expected to achieve inside its borders and what is needed meet the government's international Paris Agreement target for 2030.
The international target was designed with the expectation that domestic change would be too slow and the government would buy help in the form of carbon credits for funding clean technology overseas - at a cheaper rate than doing so domestically.
But Agriculture Minister Todd McClay said last week New Zealand would not being doing this.
Asked to clarify, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts told RNZ the options for meeting the Paris target were still being considered.
The Prime Minister has been asked to clarify who was correct.
Watts was asked by Morning Report if the agriculture minister misspoke.
Alll options were on the table, he said.
Stepping stones
Under laws passed with cross-party support, governments have to meet a series of emissions budgets every five years until 2050, stepping stones on the way to being carbon neutral.
Last week the Climate Change Commission reviewed the 2050 target and said the country should aim to do better and be net-negative for carbon emissions by 2050 - sucking away more greenhouse gas than it produces, helping bring temperatures down. The government still has a year to consider that recommendation.
The plan revealed today shows New Zealand is still comfortably on track to meet its first-ever budget, which ends at the end of 2025, despite the coalition unwinding several climate initiatives.
The second budget will also likely be met, the modelling shows, barring dry hydro years pushing up coal use or other unhelpful-to-the-climate events.
The third emissions budget looks set to be missed by a big margin.
Today's plan reduced the deficit by about seven million tonnes since the Coalition released its the draft discussion document in July. At that point the government's policy mix was expected to leave the country 17 million tonnes short of meeting its 2031-2035 emissions budget.
Now, in the most likely scenario, the government is off track for that budget by some nine million tonnes.
That is three times the emissions savings from policies in the 2026-2030 plan.
The Climate Change Commission has said action needs to start now if the country is going to lock in the necessary changes, but the government's plan says it "has another five years" to develop policies for 2031-2035.
On methane, the estimates say that meeting the country's methane target for 2030 will be "finely balanced" with projections coming in at around the target reduction of 10 per cent, including new waste policies.
By 2050, on the most generous estimate, reductions to methane are estimated to be at the bottom of the law's 24-47 percent target range. The methane target is under review by the government.
Emissions budgets for the next 15 years will mostly be met through tree growing and planting, although gross emissions are expected to drop.
Unlike the discussion draft, the plan released today includes a section on building and housing - 12 per cent of the country's emissions.
The big-hitting policies in the plan don't show big impacts until 2030 onwards.
These are pricing agriculture emissions from 2030 onwards and partnering with private companies to plant trees on Crown land.
Official analysis for the plan suggests methane-cutting feed supplements for livestock and low-methane breeds of cows and sheep will be available to farmers between 2026 and 2029, depending on the type of technology and species of animal.
But it says without a price on those methane emissions, modelling suggests few farmers will be 'early adopters" of the technologies, leaving serious reductions to the years from 2030 and beyond.
Getting private partners to plant Crown land in trees will raise emissions over the next five years because carbon is released when the ground is sown and disturbed. But by 2031-2035 the growing trees will start to pay dividends, sucking away an estimated 1.85 million tonnes over those five years - rising to 10.5 million tonnes from 2036-2040.
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