Defence Force spend-up: Who is it meant to protect us against, and other questions

The government plans to pump billions of extra dollars into the Defence Force, but there are questions around just who it thinks we might end up using the upgraded equipment against.

And there are also concerns about what "trade-offs" might have to be made, in terms of funding for other important things.

The long-awaited Defence Capability Plan will see defence spending double as a share of GDP within the next eight years, bringing it to more than 2 percent of total spending.

It includes a $12 billion boost over the next four years - $9 billion of which is new money.

Among other things there will be new missile systems and better maritime strike capabilities.

University of Waikato professor Al Gillespie told RNZ it appeared New Zealand was joining a new "arms race" in virtually doubling its defence spending. And Helen Clark, former prime minister and ex-head of the United Nations Development Programme, recently said we were not under any threat of invasion from anyone, so did not need to raise defence spending to a level that would make US President Donald Trump happy.

"Well, Helen's had her time, hasn't she?" Defence Minister Judith Collins told Morning Report on Tuesday, saying it had been 17 years since Clark saw a top-secret briefing.

"I think the point is, the world has moved on. We cannot look at the world and say, 'Oh, it's all just going to be fine.' It's not fine, and we need to make sure we do our part."

Collins said New Zealand had responsibilities to its Pacific neighbours.

"We do need to have strike capacity. Not only are we living in New Zealand, but we're a maritime nation," she said, also noting the Defence Force's role in handling weather events and natural disasters.

"Just recently, we have given a very big wake-up call, this country, when we had enormous firepower directed down our area of the world in the Tasman Sea."

Three Chinese naval vessels were seen sailing in international waters off Australia's east coast and conducting live-fire exercises in February.

Collins dismissed concerns New Zealand was contributing to an arms race.

"I don't think China is going to look at what we're doing and suddenly be frightened into spending more."

As for whether the money could be better spent elsewhere - for example, on the struggling health system, edible school meals or the existing Defence Force staff - Collins said defence was also "key infrastructure".

"There is no economic security unless we have national security. We are living in a very difficult geopolitical time, and frankly, we have to deal with the fact that we live in this world - not the one we would like it to be."

She said Finance Minister Nicola Willis' upcoming Budget would be "very balanced" and "very sensible".

"The fact is, defence has been let down for 35 years… We have to be able to maintain some of our ability around defense, and that means we do need to spend money. You can't go 35 years of not spending and cutting and not expect you're going to have to spend some money."

Collins ruled out spending any of the new billions on AI-powered drones, saying any drone the Defence Force operated would be controlled by a human. They would have lethal capabilities however, "just like humans have".

'A war with China is not going to happen'

Ex-defence minister and former National MP Wayne Mapp disagreed that New Zealand was joining an arms race, but conceded to Morning Report on Tuesday it was a "step up, there's no doubt about that".

"We're now getting the P-8 to have missiles… so that's a new capability for New Zealand."

The P-8 is a US-built maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft which replaced the old Orion fleet in 2023.

"The P-8s have obviously always got that capability," Mapp said. "We just buy a standard P-8. We're now going to put missiles on it. No one's really surprised about that. It's been talked about for many years, but now it's actually gonna happen."

What is not clear is just who we might fire missiles at. Mapp said they would likely only be used in the case of a "major global war".

"We've seen… China being, you know, more assertive, more aggressive not just with the patrols in the Tasman, but also how they're cultivating relationships in the Pacific. That's changing things in our part of the world."

But he did not believe China would be the target.

"In my view, a war with China is not going to happen… What this is really all about is deterrence and balance… they've been building up for many years. This is really a response to the massive build-up in the navy in particular, over the last 15, 20 years."

Mapp believed New Zealand needed to pay its way in the region.

"In alliances, each party to the alliance has to play their part in that. You can't just say, 'Oh, well, Australia, you do all the heavy lifting, we, we ain't gonna do nothing.' It just doesn't work that way."

Australia recently increased its defence budget, and the US has been urging its NATO allies to hike theirs to 5 percent of GDP.

Labour 'broadly supportive'

Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the party backed the move to spend more on defence, but had concerns about exactly what the money would be spent on.

"The thing that I object to is the idea that you just simply say 'well, we're going to arbitrarily spend this much money on defense' without thinking about what they get spent on," he told Morning Report.

He acknowledged the coalition government's preferences would differ from a similar plan developed under the Labour-NZ First-Green government in 2019, which went under review in 2022 following the disruption caused by Covid-19 and the "intensification of geo-strategic competition", notably Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Hipkins backed Collins' suggestion more money would likely be spent on drones.

"If you look at the role drones have played in the war in Ukraine, for example, I don't think any of that was evident when we released the capability plan back in 2019, or certainly not evident to the extent that it's been used in Ukraine. "

Local suppliers favoured

Willis earlier told First Up the Defence Force was expected to buy what it could from New Zealand suppliers, to help boost the domestic economy.

"We have very clear procurement rules which mean that Defence Force need to satisfy themselves that any equipment they buy meets all of their standards and requirements and represents good value for the taxpayer.

"So it's too early to say where each of those individual pieces of equipment will be purchased… We've given clear directions to the Defence Force that where they can involve New Zealand businesses and suppliers…

"It's innovation, it's tech, and actually, we're already exporting some of those products to other markets, so it makes sense that our own Defence Force would look to those New Zealand suppliers too."

She said New Zealand needed to be able to do its part in the event a military response was required - here and abroad, whether in combat or in aid.

"We need to be able to monitor our own ocean space and that of the wider Pacific. We need to be able to align with Australia. if there's ever a need for us jointly to defend our countries.

"And we need to be prepared in some cases, on a case-by-case basis to defend New Zealand's interests and values and international conflicts that might arise."

Concerns staff not the focus

A former soldier and defence expert is hopeful the government's long-awaited defense capability plan will help breathe new life and confidence into the country's defense forces.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel and former Defence attaché in the Pacific, Josh Wineera, told Morning Report the boost made sense.

"It looks as if that defence can is no simply no longer simply being kicked down the road, as has been the case for decades.

"When Prime Minister [Christopher] Luxon last month said there is no prosperity without security, he and the coalition government appeared to have backed that up with some quite staggering and decisive commitments."

But he was concerned the new spending on gear would not expand to personnel.

"In the document itself, there was a lot of emphasis on the equipment and the capabilities, not so much on all of the other things that actually will make this work- which is about people and the support, their conditions.

"I do hope that that comes in the actual Budget or there is a complimentary financial support for that."

The Defence Force has recently shed dozens of staff, and plans to cut hundreds more roles, citing the need to "stay within its Budget appropriation". At the same time, it has relaxed its entry requirements to boost enlistment numbers.

Wineera said Collins was right to rule out AI-powered drones, but feared future drones would have it baked in, such was the rapid advance in that particular technology.

"I think we have to proceed really carefully with that."

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