Luxon should step in over worsening Cook Islands spat, expert says

A geopolitical analyst says Prime Minister Christopher Luxon should have stepped in to fix New Zealand's diplomatic spat with Cook Islands, as Foreign Minister Winston Peters is making things worse.

The latest development in the breakdown between the two nations has seen New Zealand pause an additional $11 million in funding to the Cook Islands. That brings the total amount of funding paused to $29.8m over two years.

The details were outlined in a letter from Winston Peters to Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, released under the Official Information Act to 1News at the weekend. The disagreement between the two governments stems from four partnership agreements Brown signed with China at the beginning of the year.

The New Zealand government believed it should have been consulted over the agreements while Brown disagreed. Cook Islands is a realm country of New Zealand, which means it governs its own affairs, but New Zealand provides some assistance with foreign affairs, disaster relief and defence.

Geoffrey Miller, an analyst at the Democracy Project, said Brown and Peters seem completely at-odds with each other, and Peters' approach was not working.

"He's not solving it - it's just getting worse," he said.

"And Winston Peter's only solution, it seems, is to escalate further. And that's when I think the prime minister needs to come in."

Despite that, and months of unsuccessful talks and communications, Luxon has backed Peters' approach, and told reporters at Monday's post-cabinet press conference the Cook Islands government was at fault.

"We've seen… agreements signed with other countries that we actually want to make sure that there is mitigation plans in place dealing with some of the risks that we see as a government as it pertains to security and defence," he said.

"We're very clear about what the asks are and what we need reassurance around and we need to see a response from the Cook Islands to restore that trust."

Luxon wouldn't give further details of the plans he wanted to see but said New Zealand's funding would remain paused until the impasse was repaired.

"The Cook Islands has certain rights under the under the free association model, but they also have responsibilities to engage with us on those issues," he said.

"As we've seen from the beginning of the year, that hasn't been the case, and it certainly hasn't been to the standard that we need it to be at."

Meanwhile, Miller has described the New Zealand's government's funding cut as "punishment" and "a bad look".

"Let's just be clear what we're talking about when New Zealand uses this language of 'a pause on funding'. It's a suspension…of funding, and it's a punishment that the Cook Islands government is facing.

"I think it's very hard for New Zealand not to come across as a little bit paternalistic, a little bit patronising, and a little bit like a bully on this.

"I just think [the dispute] doesn't really serve anyone's interest. And I think the whole dispute is very petty".

Those in the Cook Islands are worrying about where the New Zealand aid cuts will be felt.

Tere Carr, who has her own tourism business there, told Morning Report it was very concerning for the people of the Cook Islands that the aid was being withheld but she could understand why it had happened.

"We as taxpayers have no idea how our money is being used by our government and so we haven't had any public accounts for three years I understand and on that note we totally understand New Zealand withholding aid."

There was no transparency about Mark Brown's agreement with China and New Zealand should step in to enforce its agreement with the Cook Island, she said.

Sione Tekiteki, a Pacific policy expert and senior lecturer at the Auckland University of Technology's law department, said New Zealand was trying to leverage the Cook Islands public to put pressure on Brown.

"New Zealand is probably thinking: 'If we play this out, the public is not going to support the political leadership on this issue once they start putting aid on the table and once other things that Cook Island citizens enjoy from New Zealand [are impacted]."

Tekiteki also highlighted the significance of the broader geopolitical context and heightened attention around China's influence in the region.

He believed both Luxon and Peters would be extra-sensitive as to how New Zealand's behaviour was being perceived by its Five Eyes partners.

"There's another issue about New Zealand not wanting its [Five Eyes] alliance partners to think that it's not holding up its end of the bargain, particularly around this geostrategic competition."

He believed that broader context helped explain why New Zealand had taken "quite a hard line".

Foreign Minister Winston Peters told Morning Report that there was no break-down in his relationship with Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown.

"Our relationship is between the people of New Zealand and the people of the Cook Islands, it's not a foreign policy matter, it's not a government-to-government matter, it is the people who have got this what you might call a pretty sacred agreement with and we intend to honour it.

"We're going to make sure the Cook Islands people know what's happening in their name because what's happening at the moment is a breach of the realm of the special relationship."

If the Cook Islands prime minister wants to change that relationship then he needed to consult his people, he said.

The Cook Islands was in breach of the agreement it had with New Zealand, he said.

"The New Zealand people can be proud of the fact that we looked beyond the personalities of politics and looked at our special relationship and if the Cook Island people want to be independent of us then we understand that, so please then if that's the purpose then have a referendum and tell us but in the meantime we're not going to let the Cook Island people down and we're not letting New Zealand taxpayers down."

Peters said he believed New Zealand's record in the matter "had been faultless".

RNZ Pacific contacted Brown for comment but did not get a response.

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