Photo: 123RF
Unemployment in New Zealand is forecast to soar back to pandemic levels - rising from 4.8 percent in the last quarter of 2024 to 5.5 by mid-year.
The good news is, it should improve after that.
But that cannot come soon enough for those who have already lost a job and cannot find a new one, including Aucklander Ant Towler.
He lost his long-term, full-time job as an overnight on-air co-ordinator for Warner Brothers Discovery, a casualty of Newshub's closure, last year.
"I was made redundant in July, I have since applied for 73 jobs... and I am still looking," he says.
"Sometimes when you apply for a job on Seek, you can see the number of applications. I remember distinctly there was a data entry job that I applied for, I looked at the bottom of the application - this was a day after it went up - and there were already 1900-plus applications for that one job. So, the numbers are against you."
Robert Walters Australia-New Zealand chief executive Shay Peters tells The Detail that New Zealand's job market is poised for a period of transformation, with an unprecedented number of Kiwis seeking work in Australia.
He is watching the rising unemployment rate and fallout closely.
"It's a scary thought ... I think there are a lot of talented New Zealanders who we are going to see on the open job market," he says.
"And one of the ramifications of that will be talented New Zealanders will look to move offshore.
"We saw that recently in survey results we released. We surveyed mid- to senior-level professionals in New Zealand and almost 42 percent of them are open to relocation this year, and mostly to Australia. The long-term ramifications of this are quite scary in terms of a talent vacuum."
Stats NZ's March 2024 year figures revealed more than 30,000 people migrated to Australia. Job opportunities, increased salaries, and a perceived better lifestyle were among the reasons for departures.
Peters says job seekers staying in New Zealand are prepared to take a pay cut and apply for junior roles - as opposed to their senior level - to secure a foot in the door.
"Absolutely, I will do what I have to do," Towler, who is now on a jobseeker benefit of $350 each week, says.
"But I am confident I will get a job. I will keep applying."
Artificial intelligence is having a "profound impact" on the job economy, Peters says. He expects to see decent growth in demand for professionals who work with the technology, especially in the fields of finance, IT, and engineering.
"There are certain markets within technology that will continue to be buoyant, and we know the use of A.I. is only going to grow, and we need experts within that field to keep pushing A.I. in New Zealand."
He believes the job market will start to gradually improve in the second half of the year.
"While it does sound doom and gloom now, employers will need to hire again. We have gone through a significant period of cost management and what that does for an organisation is they need to reprioritise. After this process, there will be labour gaps, and they will need special skills to come in and drive the organisation forward.
"So, there will be a shuffling of the deck chairs for a period of time. And then new priorities will emerge ... so, things will gradually improve. It's not all doom and gloom."
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