New US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during his swearing in as the 72nd person to hold the title, on 21 January, 2025, in the Vice President's office at the White House. Photo: AFP/ Alex Wong
Winston Peters' big meeting with Marco Rubio is likely to see him seeking reassurances over Ukraine, international relations professor Robert Patman says.
He says a peace deal favouring Putin would set a disastrous precedent that would be "unacceptable" to New Zealand - and that Peters should also be urging the United States not to follow Donald Trump's suggestion of annexing Gaza, which would amount to "ethnic cleansing".
Peters met with the US Agency for International Development (USID)'s acting head Peter Marocco and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz ahead of the headline meeting with Rubio on Wednesday morning (NZ time).
Marocco confirmed to Peters no decisions would be made on Pacific funding until mid-April.
"We'll have to wait until then, but they get our point of view as to how essential it is in the blue continent, or the Pacific," Peters said.
With USAID having halted funding amid a review, Otago University's Patman said it was likely a "big disappointment" for Peters, who had worked hard over many years as foreign minister to push for more US involvement in the region.
"It's concerning because of the signals that the administration is giving, which seem to be incoherent. On the one hand, they say they want to focus on confronting China in the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, they're taking steps which are bolstering China."
Otago University professor of International Relations Robert Patman Photo: Provided
The opportunity for China to fill the void left in aid funding for the Pacific, and Trump administration moves to pull out of the Paris climate agreement, would be of particular concern for Pacific nations, he said.
US foreign policy in Europe was yet more cause for concern for New Zealand.
Robert Patman. Photo: Provided
"Trump is basically pushing for the settlement of the Ukraine war on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's terms, which means the aggressor, the country that has disrespected the key principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity is likely to be rewarded by some land illegally stolen from a neighbour.
"The outcome in Ukraine is critical for New Zealand, and that may come a surprise to some New Zealanders, because it's a long way away ... a sort of land-for-peace deal, that would be a bit of a disaster for not only Europe, but for small liberal democracies, because the precedent of a big power stealing territory from a smaller power would be set.
"That outcome will be unacceptable to us."
Peters had said he and Waltz had "an excellent meeting" that ran long, but which he came away "very, very, very pleased with".
Patman said Peters sharing New Zealand's views on Ukraine was likely the reason for his meeting with Waltz running long.
"The gap between Trump's foreign policy and our own is massive. We believe in a rules-based order, Trump does not. We believe in multilateralism, Trump does not. And I'm sure this was all phrased very diplomatically and constructively and pragmatically by Peters, but I'm sure these points were perhaps contributing to the meeting becoming quite long."
Winston Peters meets with US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz Photo: MFAT / supplied
He said it was likely to be a main focus of the talks with Rubio, with Peters seeking reassurances and repeating New Zealand's position on the matter.
"And it's interesting that Chris Luxon the prime minister, in India, has... quite correctly, restated the position of New Zealand on Ukraine before Peters meets Marco Rubio," he said.
Luxon also committed to greater military cooperation between New Zealand and India.
'Good for New Zealanders'
Labour's leader Chris Hipkins said Peters' upcoming talk with Rubio was "obviously a big meeting", but was realistic about what could be achieved.
"I don't want to make this unduly political. If Winston Peters can have a constructive meeting that's in the best interests of New Zealand, that's going to be ultimately good for New Zealanders.
"I think at least getting a steer that he can bring back to New Zealand on where we might stand on issues such as tariffs I think would be important."
Peters has also said he thinks Gaza and the conflict in the Middle East is likely to come up during that meeting - and Patman said Peters should continue to remind the US of New Zealand's position on that.
"Trump has made a suggestion that the US... could annex Gaza and displace 2 million people. That would be ethnic cleansing, and that's completely illegal," Patman said.
"Peters... I think he's been very strong on this. He's argued for a long time for a two-state solution in the Middle East - we need to remind the United States that it probably needs to adhere to its long-standing position, which it seems to have departed from."
He said the previous US President Joe Biden's handling of Israel and Gaza was not blameless either.
"The Biden administration gave virtually unconditional support to [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu's response to the horrific Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, and the Biden administration therefore has a big role in that 15-month war which has left 50,000 Palestinians dead, 70 percent of whom were women and children.
"Now for many people around the world, that's unacceptable, and it's very important that the United States gets the message from New Zealand and from other countries.
"I do think Peters has got a difficult task, because he can't shirk from defending New Zealand's interests, and at the moment, the Trump administration is challenging our national interests on the international stage."
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