US election: Women will pick the winner

Analysis - "They're both wrong," the 80-year-old Arizonan says.

But Kamala Harris will probably win because she's been strong on a woman's right to access abortions, she says.

The mother, who doesn't want to be identified "because I'll probably be too honest", believes Harris is bad for the economy, for job creation, for businesses, and for the country's fuel security.

But there's something she cares about more: a woman's right to make choices about her own body.

"You can try to put your thoughts in my head, but stay the hell out of my pants."

Listening-in is a young mother, with two young children underfoot. "I've always liked Trump," she says.

Her husband works in the oil industry, and she's worried about the threat she believes undocumented migrants pose to her children.

What about the things Donald Trump says about women?

"The kids hear it and see it online anyway. I like that he calls it like it is," she says.

"He calls a spade a spade," the dad says.

Like every other demographic, women are divided in this year's election. But a late swing towards the Democratic candidate - especially among women not affiliated with either party - has the Harris campaign feeling quietly confident it could still pull this off.

Just two days from polling day, the all-important Iowa Poll dropped, throwing the Trump campaign into a tailspin.

The nationally recognised poll shows Harris has picked up support in a red state, which Trump has won twice, thanks in large part to women.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, released two days out when many have already voted, has Harris leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent.

The poll shows that women - particularly those who are older or are politically independent - are driving the late shift toward Harris.

An Iowa victory for Harris would be a significant upset, after the state swung further to the right during the last two elections. It may also signal a wider trend, giving Harris hope that the swing states she needs to secure the necessary 270 electoral college votes may be heading the same way.

"It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," pollster Ann Selzer told the Des Moines Register. "She has clearly leaped into a leading position."

Harris has focused on reproductive rights throughout her campaign, appealing to women and men with women in their lives.

Trump has also tempered his comments and policies on abortion bans, with his campaign team reading the importance of the issue for women voters.

But on the same day the poll was released, Trump - a former president found liable for sexual abuse - laughed at a crude joke implying Harris is a prostitute, during a rally in the swing state of North Carolina.

When a supporter yelled that Harris "worked on a corner", Trump let out a short laugh. "This place is amazing," he said.

When American women first won the right to vote in 1920, an additional 26-30 million people were added to the voter pool.

There are more than 168m women in the US, and in 2020 more than 82m women turned out to the polls.

Women have made up a majority of the electorate in every presidential election in the last 40 years.

Last time around, Democrats won their largest share of women - 57 percent, according to exit polls. And this election, the Harris campaign has been watching the early ballots roll in, noting that women are showing up - including independents and first-time voters.

Former US Ambassador to New Zealand Mark Gilbert has spoken out against former Prime Minister Sir John Key's Trump endorsement. Gilbert told Stuff Harris' strong ground game in the battleground states such as Pennsylvania in the final stages of the race and the late breaking undecided votes - in particular women in the suburbs - will make all the difference.

"I think you're going to see an unbelievable gender gap and for a group white, college educated, suburban women who have historically voted for Republicans."

Harris has made a concerted push for women, with her messaging on reproductive rights, and a longform interview with Alex Cooper on her popular women's podcast Call Her Daddy was a calculated move at a time when the campaign kicked up a notch.

CNN reported that Trump was also invited on the podcast, but decided to stick to his playbook, talking to young men via the Joe Rogan podcast. He's since shifted strategies and is talking to women at his rallies as he races between the battleground states in the final push.

Although the Iowa poll shows Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree, he is trailing when it comes to women's support.

"Women power the vote; we have always powered the vote," says Pinny Sheoran, the Arizona state president for the League of Women Voters.

The league, a national grassroots volunteer organisation established more than 100 years ago, advocates for equal voting rights and defending democracy. The non-partisan organisation does not endorse a candidate or party, but does take positions on policies. These policy positions take an average of two years to develop.

With the election drawing closer, the league's 70,000 volunteers have been hitting the doors and the phones - as well as running an online education campaign - to try to ensure women are able to vote, have a desire to vote, and understands the issues and what they mean for them.

"Hopefully, what we're telling women is we don't have to empower you; you have the power," Sheoran says.

"Women's issues are dominating. Because our lives - especially in this country with the issue of women's right to be able to choose how she manages her family … how her health is impacted should she get pregnant - all those issues are dominating," she says.

Sheoran is of a generation where she remembers a time before her mother and grandmother could vote. She remembers how hard women had to fight to win the right to vote.

"We enjoy more freedoms, and we don't want our daughters and our granddaughters to enjoy less freedoms.

"Unfortunately, one of the parties has not got the memo, so they continue to say things that offend women, and it's not a good place to be," Sheoran says.

"There is some truth to hell hath no fury greater than a woman scorned."

Like others, the former school teacher says she sees abortion access as a pivotal issue for women this election. But that doesn't mean the league tells women how to vote based on this issue.

"We can't fight for the right for women to make her choices, and then say: 'you cannot make this choice or that choice'.

"What we want to do is make sure they are educated in making the choice that is to the benefit of them, their health, their families.

"When we stay with that messaging, we see that women sit up, listen, and realise that the only person that can make the decision about their body, their health, is them. They have the power, we just have to make sure that they realise they have the power."

However, local Republican Arizonan district committee chair Lisa Everett says women are not single-issue voters.

"Here's the reality: the economy is a woman's issue. Healthcare, not aborting babies, but healthcare is a woman's issue. The border is a woman's issue. School choice is a woman's issue. All these issues that are on the ballot right now affect women just as much as men."

And many believe Democrats are pushing abortion access too far, she says.

A September survey of women voters backs this up, finding the top issue for women voters this election is the economy. But abortion has become increasingly dominant, with 13 percent of women voters saying it's the most important issue for them this election (up from 10 percent at the start of the campaign season).

For women under 30, reproductive rights are the most important issue this election.

Last time around, Trump won white women's votes. Democrats are trying to mobilise left-leaning white women in an effort to welcome the country's first female president.

Drilling further into voter demographics shows white women are particularly important. They make up 30 percent of the electorate - the single largest voting bloc - and consistently turn out to vote.

In 2016 and 2020, Trump won the vote of white women. In the 2016 election, 47 percent of white women voted for Trump, compared with 45 percent for Hillary Clinton. Even more white women, 53 percent, favoured Trump in 2020, versus 46 percent for Joe Biden.

This time around, Democrats are making a concerted effort to try to stop that happening again, by mobilising left-leaning white women.

But there are other groups that also hold sway. Sheoran singles out Latinas as an important group in this year's election.

Arizona director of non-profit La Familia Vita Monica Sandschafer agrees women from the Latino community are a crucial voter block. And despite some anecdotes suggesting religious beliefs mean Latinas are more likely to take an anti-abortion stance, Sandschafer says that's not what she's hearing.

Sandschafer cites a survey that found 75 percent support for access to abortion among Latino voters - higher than among white people.

"They may personally be opposed to abortion, may personally never, ever make that choice, find it distasteful, find it immoral, but their belief is that it shouldn't be a government decision, that it should be a medical decision and a personal decision."

Beyond the women voters themselves, the league's Sheoran talks about the importance of allies.

Though some men (and women) on the right are talking about doing away with the 19th Amendment (equal voting rights), others are running campaigns asking men - fathers, husbands and brothers - to vote for the women in their lives this time around.

Sheoran says representation of women in politics is essential, not just as president, but across all elected offices.

"When women do not have parity and equity, it undervalues their lives. Women build families, we build communities, and so that undermines and impacts communities."

- Laura Walters is in the United States covering the 2024 presidential election as part of a press programme hosted by the US State Department