By Alexandria Utting, ABC
Cyclone Alfred. Photo: Supplied/Windy.com
Tropical Cyclone Alfred "might be the most significant system" for the Gold Coast since 1954, with the possibility of up to a metre of rainfall in the hinterland, says its acting mayor Donna Gates.
A crossing near Brisbane would be a "worst case scenario because we'll get all the damaging winds coming off the southern tail of the cyclone," she says.
"It's scary … damaging winds, 130 to 140km per hour Wednesday through Friday.
"People might not be aware but the most rainfall is possible in the hinterland and that will probably persist right through until Saturday," Gates told ABC's Jessica Black.
The cyclone has intensified into a category 2 system and is forecast to turn towards south-east Queensland later on Monday.
Modelling shows the system, which is about 560 kilometres east of Brisbane, will start heading towards the coast before making landfall between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast later this week.
According to the Australian government census in 2021, about 120,000 New Zealanders live in the greater Brisbane area.
Beaches along the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast have been closed due to dangerous surf. Photo: ABC News/Josh Dye
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Jonathan How said the latest modelling suggests the cyclone is "probably more likely" to cross around the northern suburbs of Brisbane.
Alfred's intensity may fluctuate in the coming days, but it is expected to make landfall at category 2 strength late Thursday or early Friday morning.
It will be the first time the south-east has been in the direct firing line of a tropical cyclone in several decades.
How said the location of landfall "will be very critical" because the worst impacts will be felt on the southern side of the system.
"We are expecting to see pretty broadly 200 to 400 millimetres [of rain] … but we could even see isolated falls of 500 to 700mm, particularly in areas from the Gold Coast down towards the Northern Rivers," he said.
"That includes places like Lismore, Mullumbimby, down towards Cape Byron and also inland parts of the Northern Rivers as well."
Gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 kilometres per hour and heavy rainfall is forecast for south-east Queensland and north-eastern NSW from tomorrow, with communities urged to begin preparations.
Queensland Premier David Crisafulli has urged against complacency.
"It's an event that doesn't happen a lot to this part of the state, but it isn't unprecedented," he said.
"We are asking people to do all you can to prepare in the knowledge that we are doing the same."
Storm surges 'significant concern'
Authorities are warning storm surges may increase flood risks to low-lying coastal areas, with waves over 7 metres observed off North Stradbroke Island overnight.
Crisafulli said if the weather system crosses during a high tide, storm surges could affect low-lying coastal areas, including Golden Beach and Noosa on the Sunshine Coast, as well as canal estates on the Gold Coast.
"Storm surges are a significant concern and we are asking people to begin their preparation in that regard," he said.
Gold Coast disaster coordinator Mark Ryan said if the system makes landfall north of the region, it could lead to major flooding, with up to 600mm of rain possible.
"The scenario where the cyclone is likely to cross north of the city is the more concerning scenario," he said.
NSW Premier Chris Minns said 40 flood rescue teams were on stand-by in the event of a disaster in the Northern Rivers region.
Beaches are expected to face massive swells in the north, followed by severe winds of up to 100kph.
"Then lastly rain, and obviously those communities have gone through massive amounts of flooding in recent years," Minns said.
"This is the last thing that they want to hear, but we're asking them to be prepared, to listen to community awareness messages from the SES, and be prepared for the worst."
Dangers remain after cyclone makes landfall
Widespread rainfall is expected to continue into next week, extending into eastern NSW and "even as inland as Dubbo and down towards the Riverina", How said.
"For Queensland, we could see so the showers and storms extending into the Darling Downs … it really only clears the coast with a cold front and low pressure system moving through Victoria on Monday and into Tuesday," he said.
Thunderstorms are also possible after the cyclone makes landfall, with authorities warning the dangers "won't be over just after it crosses".
"We will continue to see very heavy rainfall right through the weekend," How said.
"In some areas ... a lot of tropical moisture is making its way into the coast and that will trigger a lot of rain and storms for areas far away from the tropical cyclone itself."
- ABC/ABC live coverage
