Soft voters stir election hope for the Coalition and nerves for Labor

By David Speers, ABC

Analysis - Much has been said about the unusually high number of undecided and soft voters at this election.

For months pollsters have reported the number of people either completely tuned out from the political circus, still genuinely vacillating, or not yet locked in, has been significantly higher than at previous elections.

This softness has generated both hope in the Coalition and nervousness within Labor in the final days of campaigning.

At a national level, polls suggest Labor has cemented its lead.

Majority government is certainly within reach for Anthony Albanese. But surprises could still be lurking in the suburbs.

Safe Labor seats could still flip if enough late breakers choose to vent anger over cost of living.

Even disinterested voters hit by cost of living

So, if the outcome of this contest still depends on which way these undecided voters go as they step into the polling booth, what will they be noticing?

What are the two sides trying to bring to the attention of those only just tuning in?

Unsurprisingly, the closing arguments for both sides have involved a return to the issue listed as the biggest voter concern for the past three years: cost of living.

Even the most disinterested voter has noticed the price of everything going up.

For Peter Dutton, that's meant a return to the "are you better off?" question.

It's a question that's worked successfully against incumbent governments battling inflation around the world. At least it did last year.

This year, however, the "are you better off?" question hasn't been quite as successful.

Mark Carney's victory

Canada's conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre posed it repeatedly, hoping frustrated families would boot out a long-term government. They didn't.

Poilievre ended up losing his seat this week, as Justin Trudeau's successor Mark Carney won an election built on standing up to Donald Trump's threats and promising stability in turbulent times.

Canadians were undoubtedly still concerned about the cost of living, but also about Trump.

They opted for certainty rather than taking a risk on someone who, like the man in the White House, was promising to cut the public service.

Some of the parallels between the Canadian and Australian elections are striking but only go so far.

Trump is a far bigger and more direct concern for Canadians than he is in Australia.

Still, Albanese is trying to harness similar sentiments.

In his closing campaign address to the National Press Club on Thursday, the prime minister was urging voters to stick with certainty and stability, rather than risking the unknown of "cuts and chaos".

Helpful inflation figures for Labor

The latest inflation figures also helped Labor's argument about better times ahead.

At 2.9 percent, underlying inflation is now back within the Reserve Bank's target zone for the first time in three years.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is unsubtly highlighting market expectations of several interest rate cuts to come.

Dutton, of course, won't give the government any credit for the better inflation news, and argues the Coalition are "always better economic managers".

On Friday, we'll see how they plan to manage the budget, and perhaps where the "cuts" will come, when Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor reveals the Coalition's policy costings.

He's promising "a substantially better budget bottom line".

Gross debt is currently forecast to hit $1.2 trillion. The Coalition says that figure would be $40 billion lower under its plans. So more like $1.16 trillion.

Cost of living, however, hasn't been Dutton's only theme in this final week of campaigning.

He's tried to jog memories of the failed Voice referendum, one of the other most memorable issues of this parliamentary term.

After making it clear he wants fewer welcome to country ceremonies, the opposition leader pounced on comments from Foreign Minister Penny Wong about the Voice to suggest Labor held secret plans to bring back the idea overwhelmingly rejected by the Australian people.

The prime minister again insisted there are no such plans. Indeed, the entire Uluru Statement has been awkwardly removed from the table by Labor altogether.

Dutton, however, is trying to remind disengaged voters of the issue that pitted Albanese against the majority.

It's a sign cost of living alone isn't enough for the Coalition at this point, to convince the disengaged and undecided to boot out a first term government.

- ABC