South Korea election: Wave of anger could sweep liberals to victory

By Cynthia Kim, Reuters

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung. Photo: JUNG YEON-JE/AFP

When then-President Yoon Suk Yeol's martial law decree plunged South Korea into chaos, it plummeted sales at Park Myung-Ja's diner in Jechon and became a turning point for many voters in the town.

The 66-year-old chef and restaurant owner is one face of South Korea's North Chungcheong Province, a swing region that has become even more pivotal at a time of deep political polarisation in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

"We need to get furthest away from all that martial law drama to get things back to where they were," Park said at her Korean restaurant two hours south of Seoul, adding liberal candidate "Lee Jae-myung looks alright for that".

Voters are now looking for the winner of the 3 June snap election to calm the economic and political shocks that have roiled the country since Yoon's 3 December martial law decree led to months of economic downturn and sparked nationwide protests.

Park's Chungcheong Province is a key battleground for Kim Moon-soo, candidate for the conservative People Power Party campaigning on deregulations for companies, and liberal Democratic Party frontrunner Lee, who's vowing to bring back stability after months of turmoil.

In swing regions such as North Chungcheong Province, where Jechon is located, the ruling conservative party risks losing a big chunk of its vote base with many voters blaming the martial law debacle for weaker private consumption and easing export momentum.

Park's business crashed after Yoon's declaration with some of her biggest customers who are local council officials cancelling dinner reservations in groups of five to 10.

"The first call I got on 4 December was from a regular customer who does his year-end dinner here every year. I asked him why he is cancelling it, and he said - 'don't you watch news?'"

Yoon Suk Yeol. Photo: HANDOUT / AFP

Lee, who defied Yoon's martial law decree, had a 10-percentage point lead over Kim in one of the final opinion polls issued last Tuesday with 45 percent of voters trusting him to revive the economy compared to 32 percent for Kim.

Conservatives have criticised Lee for a series of criminal cases he faces over accusations of election law violations, corruption, and other issues, but they have struggled to unify behind a single candidate and to distance themselves from Yoon.

On Friday, right-winger Kim said voting for Lee would end up "collapsing our economy", hoping to sway voters in small cities such as Jecheon, an inland town of about 130,000 surrounded by mountainous tourist spots, who are looking for a turning point to revive South Korea's fortunes.

But the martial law call continues to weigh heavily on conservative chances.

"We definitely had fewer customers, especially from office dinners, after the martial law declaration. It did bite us hard," said Choi, a Chinese restaurant owner in Pangyo, a town south of Seoul.

"Lee is someone who will uplift more of us who are not doing so well."

Heavy on spectacle

Consumer sentiment, which dropped by the most since the outbreak of Covid-19 in December, recovered to pre-martial-law levels of 101.8 in May, on expectations of a fresh stimulus package under a new leader.

The shock move rattled markets and put the won among the region's worst-performing currencies of the last year, hurt business sentiment even before exporters absorbed the full force of US President Donald Trump's punitive tariff policies.

Now, the strains are setting in, as economic tailwinds from the semiconductor boom and reforms in the capital markets in the past few years are fading.

Whoever wins the 3 June election will face an economy that contracted in the first quarter, manage negotiations with Washington to avoid high tariffs, and assuage voters such as Park who are seeing their living standards go backwards from elevated grocery bills and weak spending.

South Korea's election campaign has been light on policy and heavy on spectacle after twists and turns involving the main candidates.

"I wish they had taken housing supply and boosting the domestic market more seriously in their pledges," said 59-year-old Jung Soo-hyeon. "But perhaps because it's a snap election, that kind of in-depth consideration seems to be missing ' which is a bit disappointing."

Analysts say voters watched economic pledges closely as consumption has been badly hit.

A win for Lee could spur "faster economic growth in the short-term," Kim Jin-wook of Citi Research said.

The Democratic Party "would likely be relatively more keen on providing policy and support for the mid-to-low-income bracket", he added.

While both top candidates have pledged to draft a second supplementary budget for the year as soon as the election is over, Lee has also promised vouchers to help local businesses and subsidies for childcare, youth, and the elderly.

While Lee has backed away from advocating for universal basic income, some voters including Park, who backed Yoon last time, said they see Lee as most likely to look out for their interests.

"Lee's party seems to be willing to give out more to those who are struggling," Park said, emphasising that "change" is important.

- Reuters