France's Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Photo: AFP / Hans Lucas / Amaury Cornu
As French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government has fallen to a motion of no confidence just three months after coming to office, New Caledonia is among the major victims of France's ongoing political instability.
New Caledonia's post-riots situation was already difficult, with an economy on its knees and an estimated €2.2 billion in damages because of the burning and looting that erupted on 13 May.
Over 600 businesses have been destroyed, making thousands of people jobless, and forcing companies to shut down.
Last week, several business leaders groups were complaining that even the packages promised were slow to arrive from Paris and that they needed "visibility" to start re-investing and rebuilding.
The recovery process had been difficult to kick-start with much-needed financial assistance from France.
One month after the riots, French President Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections.
Until September, New Caledonia's political leaders found it difficult to negotiate with a caretaker government, until Macron appointed Barnier as PM, on 5 September 2024.
Barnier appointed prime minister on 5 September
From day one, Barnier announced that a controversial constitutional amendment to modify eligibility conditions at New Caledonia's local elections was not to be pursued.
He also appointed François-Noël Buffet as his Minister for Overseas, particularly in charge of New Caledonia, announced a "dialogue and concertation" mission led by both Presidents of France's Houses of Parliament, Gérard Larcher (Senate) and Yaël Braun-Pivet (National Assembly).
Larcher and Braun-Pivet both visited New Caledonia in November to pave the ground for a resumption of political dialogue regarding New Caledonia's future status, strongly hinting on a notion of "shared sovereignty" while at the same time assuring of their support to New Caledonia.
Over the past few months, France's financial assistance to help New Caledonia recover and rebuild has been slowly taking shape.
The long-term financial package, amongst other measures, included a credit line of up to €1 billion, with a guarantee from the French State, to be mainly activated through the French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement, AFD).
New Caledonia's 'PS2R' plan
On New Caledonia's side, the government and its President Louis Mapou have been working on a "PS2R" (Plan de Sauvegarde, de Refondation et de Reconstruction [Salvage, Refoundation and Reconstruction Plan]), which intends to rebuild and reform New Caledonia's economic fabric, making it leaner and more flexible.
Another mechanism, made up of a cross-partisan group of local parliamentarians, was also seeking French finance, but with a different approach than Mapou's: it intends to mainly obtain not loans, but grants, based on the idea that the French loans would bring New Caledonia to an unsustainable level of debt.
As Mapou returned from Paris last week with a French reaffirmation of its assistance and loan package, the "pro-grants" bipartisan group was still there this week to ensure that France's 2025 Appropriation Bill (budget) effectively contains amendments specifically related to New Caledonia.
Now that this Bill is effectively no more, due to Barnier and his government's downfall, New Caledonia's political and business leaders feel the whole work has to be started all over again.
"Our overseas territories will pay the hard price. This will pause many crucial measures with a direct impact on their economic, social and environmental development", Buffet anticipated in a release on Tuesday, ahead of the no-confidence vote.
He said the repercussions were going to be "very serious".
A last-minute Bill for emergency expenses
The only short-term hope would be that the French National Assembly passes an "end of management" Bill 2024 that would, at least, allow extremely urgent finances to be made available for New Caledonia, including French assistance mobilised until the end of this year.
"Without this, as soon as mid-December 2024, New Caledonia would be faced with dramatic consequences such as the inability to pay public servants' salaries, including health doctors, or to pay unemployment benefits or to fund the production of energy", New Caledonia representative MP at the National Assembly Nicolas Metzdorf explained on Tuesday.
The crucial "end of management" 2024 Bill, which is worth some 237.6 million US dollars, is expected to be put to the vote and hopefully endorsed before the no confidence vote and before the current session goes into recess.
On Tuesday, Metzdorf and his colleague Senator Georges Naturel also jointly warned on the very real risks associated with the downfall of the present French government.
"Over the last few weeks, the Barnier government has demonstrated it had the capacity to listen and act for New Caledonia", they jointly stated.
"Now if his government is unseated, for us, this will mean more business will shut down, thousands of New Caledonian employees who will no longer receive their partial or total unemployment benefits, families to jump into despair and an extremely precarious situation".
Fears for 'hunger riots'
Over the past few weeks, several New Caledonian politicians have warned of a serious risk for what they term "hunger riots" in the French Pacific archipelago, following the economic situation caused by the 13 May insurrection and destruction.
New Caledonia's parliamentarians, whether pro-France or pro-independence, were all saying they didn't support the no-confidence motion against Barnier.
"We've already seen what impact the (June) dissolution has caused and how difficult it was to engage in talks (with France)", pro-independence MP for New Caledonia at the National Assembly Emmanuel Tjibaou said in Paris.
"With this 2024 Appropriation Bill, at least we had something, even if it was not perfect. Now here we no longer have anything", said New Caledonia's politician Philippe Dunoyer (from the moderate pro-French Calédonie Ensemble party).
Impact on political talks
Dunoyer also pointed out this is not only about financial assistance, but about politics, as local parties were preparing to resume crucial talks regarding New Caledonia's long-term political future status.
"We are engaged in an approach to go back to talks. And we don't have much time to reach an agreement".
He and others are pointing the finger at a necessary "stability" for talks to resume.
New Caledonia's Congress is also working on endorsing, as fast as possible, as many resolutions that would allow to "seal" as many French financial commitments as possible so as it maximise as many sources of income as possible.
"We really didn't need this, nothing has been spared to us during this mandature", Metzdorf said earlier this week.
"But we'll keep doing as we always do: we'll fight", he said in Paris.
