NOAA’s western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Outlook for the remainder of 2025. Photo: NOAA
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting two or three typhoons for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan for the rest of this year.
Below-normal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is forecast for the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands; and near-normal activity for Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Yap State and Palau.
The NOAA, in its report, stated the outlook is a general guide to the predicted, overall cyclone activity across the US-affiliated Pacific islands, and does not indicate how many of these systems will actually make landfall.
However, it does provide a general idea of how many tropical storms and/or typhoons could affect a specific island or a group of islands across Micronesia, with peripheral effects such as strong damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and/or storm surge/inundation.
"Although TC activity peaks around September-November for many regional locations, TCs can occur throughout the year across the western North Pacific," the report said.
Photo: NOAA
A typhoon is defined as a storm with maximum sustained winds of 74mph (119km/h).
The areas with the likelihood of the most typhoons for the rest of 2025 - two or three - are Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan; and the Northern CNMI with one to three predicted.
Pacific Daily News reported Marcus Aydlett, warning coordination meteorologist at NWS Guam, saying the late 2024 and early 2025 La Nina weather pattern has ended, shifting into El Niño-Southern Oscillation-neutral (ENSO-neutral) pattern.
With the shift, storm formation is expected to move slightly to the east as compared with 2024.
"Basin-wide TC activity typically shifts eastward in El Niño years, and westward during La Niña years," the NOAA report said.
