The Cook Islands did not think it needed to consult with New Zealand on the China agreement. Photo: LIU BIN
The decision by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters to suspend payment of aid to the Cook Islands could backfire on the New Zealand government, an academic says.
Peters has withheld more than $18.2 million over the Cooks' failure to adequately inform his government about a partnership agreement signed with Beijing earlier this year.
The foreign minister's office says the Cook Islands didn't consult with New Zealand to ensure shared interests weren't put at risk.
Massey University associate professor in defence and security studies Anna Powles told Pacific Waves that the move could strengthen China's hand in the Pacific.
Dr Powles spoke with RNZ Pacific.
(This script has been edited for brevity and clarity.)
Anna Powles: As a diplomatic strategy it is unclear what Wellington is trying to achieve by pausing funding to Cook Islands as a consequence of Cook Islands signing the deal with China this year.
Don Wiseman: Yes, well, Winston Peters is using the aid as a bribe, really, isn't he?
The diplomatic row between the Cook Islands and New Zealand has come to a head. Photo: RNZ Pacific
AP: Well, he is certainly seeking to leverage it, and that, given past tactics of effectively trying to punish partners over their decision-making, and sovereign decision-making, is arguably quite short sighted, actually, particularly in the current context where Pacific countries have options, they have alternatives.
DW: Well, the thing with the Cook Islands, of course, is it doesn't have sovereignty, does it? It's still part of the realm of New Zealand. Brown, the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, has indicated he would perhaps like that to change because of his requests, more than once, for the Cook Islands to have Cook Islands citizenship. Do you think maybe his cuddling up to China in this manner was all part of the same strategy?
AP: Prime Minister Brown has certainly made it clear over the years that he sees, firstly, independence from New Zealand as critical under his leadership. But also the means for doing so, which clearly relates to deep sea mining and the economic benefits of deep sea mining as a vehicle for independence for Cook Islands.
The independence conversation has been conflated with this. We know that under the previous New Zealand Labour government, with former foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta, there had been progress in supporting Cook Island aspirations towards independence.
It's unfortunate that the geopolitics playing out in the region and Cook Islands independence aspirations have been conflated in this way.
DW: So where do we go from here? Because Brown, effectively, has been summoned to Wellington for some sort of explanation, but we've sort of been down this road before, and clearly Peters wasn't satisfied with that. So it's all a bit messy, isn't it?
AP: It is. It is pretty messy. And again, this is unfortunate that this could cast a distinct shadow over the upcoming Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in September, but also, importantly, with respect to the relationship between New Zealand and Cook Islands.
Aid should not be a bargaining chip. The relationship between the two countries surely should be deeper and robust enough to be able to work through these issues, but it fundamentally seems to come down to different perspectives on the spirit of the 2001 Joint Declaration between the two countries, which calls for that consultation by Cook Islands when it's entering into other foreign policy arrangements with other countries.
So that spirit of that of the declaration, is really in question here, and the negotiation between the two countries, between New Zealand and Cook Islands, needs to take aid as a bargaining chip off the table for it to be able to continue, for it to be successful.
DW: What impact do you think something like this would have at the talks that Christopher Luxon is having in China this very day?
AP: The fact of the matter is that we can't separate the China equation from what's taken place. Obviously concerns held by New Zealand about the nature of some of those agreements between Cook Islands and China, and there are concerns that some of those agreements, some of those MOUs, potentially may cut across Cook Islands national security interests, and, by extension, New Zealand national security interests.
So obviously, China is very much part of this equation. The degree to which this plays into Prime Minister Luxon's talks in China is unclear.
But what it does do is it actually opens the door for increased Chinese engagement with the Cook Islands and with other countries in the Pacific, by being able to point to this type of behaviour of New Zealand, using aid as a development assistance as a bargaining chip, and by Beijing being able to tell its partners in the region, we would never do that, and certainly we would never seek to leverage our relationships in this way.
This could be a very good news story for China, and it certainly puts New Zealand in a weaker position, as a consequence.
