Winston Peters. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Analysis: New Zealand First has achieved what its coalition partners couldn't in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll - a bump in support following a Budget that was largely paid for by significant changes to the country's pay equity scheme.
Our latest poll, conducted between 23 May - the day after the Budget - and Friday 30 May is a bad read for National with the party down in its polling, the coalition unable to govern if an election was held today, Christopher Luxon behind Labour's Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, and more people thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction than the right.
It's not good news for coalition partner ACT either, its drop in polling released just days after leader David Seymour was sworn in as deputy prime minister, taking over the mantle from New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
The RNZ-Reid Research poll comes just a day after a 1News-Verian poll showing National, ACT and Labour had dropped in support while the Greens, New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori were up.
On those numbers the coalition would still be in a position to govern if an election was held today.
With the exception of Labour, which is down in support in the 1News poll, the trends are fairly similar for the other parties and the numbers are within both polls' margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Both polls interviewed just over 1000 eligible voters and covered a similar polling period.
The backdrop to both was a Budget that delivered very little for middle-income New Zealanders.
While health and education investment was up, much of it would be needed to simply keep the lights on. The targeted investment was focussed on business owners, while meaningful increases in an ongoing cost of living crisis, like KiwiSaver government contributions, were cut in half and, in some cases, BestStart payments for children were canned altogether.
There were small targeted increases for low-income families, yet pay equity claims that overwhelmingly benefit poorly paid women were set back potentially years.
It was Seymour who declared ACT had saved the Budget by finding $12.8 billion in cuts with its changes to the pay equity regime, and it was National's Nicola Willis and Luxon who bore the brunt of the decision to rush the overhaul through under urgency and not consult with the public.
On that score the poll reveals just a quarter of respondents - 25.5 percent - support the government's pay equity changes, while 68 percent of respondents think the government should have consulted New Zealanders first.
New Zealand First barely featured in the pay equity debate in recent weeks and successfully avoided saying anything much on the issue, other than it was a collective Cabinet decision that it supported, the onus being on the word collective - a Cabinet manual requirement.
As for the Budget, it was Willis who led the charge and, given many of ACT and New Zealand First's coalition committments have already been ticked off in the past 18 months, any disgruntlement with the piecemeal approach to it lie at the feet of National.
But Luxon says he isn't focussed on the polls, going as far as to tell RNZ he "doesn't recognise the numbers".
He says the response he's heard to the Budget has been nothing but positive, and given his time again on pay equity he wouldn't change anything.
Peters noted the world is in "unprecedented times" and he believes his party is doing a good job remembering the fundamentals New Zealanders care about - that is, increasing wages and decreasing taxes.
He wouldn't comment on whether his party had deliberately stayed out of the pay equity fray, instead saying he was concentrating on talking direct to voters and being a politician who actually listens.
As for Seymour, he told RNZ different things motivate different voters and while it's possible pay equity fed into some people's minds when it came to polls he was of the view that "doing what's right is politically popular in the long term, and even if I'm wrong good policy is worth it".
A bigger issue for all three parties in this poll is the issue of whether voters think the country, under the coalition, is headed in the wrong or right direction.
In March, the RNZ-Reid Research poll showed more respondents believing the country was headed in the right direction (43.5 percent) than the wrong direction (40.6 percent).
The post-Budget numbers - 37.8 percent right direction versus 46.5 percent wrong direction - won't sit well with the coalition.
Luxon told RNZ voters understand it has been a difficult time and he senses they know the corner is being turned and "there's a sense of optimism".
The poll, however, doesn't back that sentiment up.
Explore the full results with RNZ's interactive charts.
This poll of 1008 people was conducted by Reid Research, using quota sampling and weighting to ensure representative cross section by age, gender and geography. The poll was conducted through online interviews between 23-30 May 2025 and has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The report is availabehere.
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