Labour buoyed by latest showing in RNZ / Reid Research poll

It's "encouraging" but there's still 18 months of hard work ahead to regain the Treasury benches, Labour leader Chris Hipkins says.

He believes the increases in the party support and for him as preferred prime minister are part of a trend that has shown growing support for the party since the 2023 election.

Parliament's left bloc would have enough support to govern, according to the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll.

The poll was taken in the seven days following the release of the Budget and in the wake of the $12.8 billion pay equity changes - which RNZ's polling also shows attracting more opposition than support.

National with 38 seats loses three seats since the previous poll in March while ACT at eight seats loses four.

New Zealand First gains two to have 11 seats in the new pollbut it's not enough to save the coalition. It would have a total of 57 seats which is below the threshold to govern.

Labour gains two seats from RNZ's last poll and is predicted to have 42, according to these results.

The Greens gain two to have 14 and Te Pāti Māori gains one to have seven seats. That's 63 seats compared to the coalition's 57.

Hipkins said it was "an encouraging poll result" and it showed people were disappointed with the government and the Budget.

"I don't think anybody expected them to be cutting pay equity in order to make the Budget balance so I think people are expressing some dissatisfaction with that.

"We've still got 18 months to go and we know in the Labour party we're going to have to work hard in that time," he told Morning Report.

All of the polls were showing that Labour was rebuilding support since the last general election and it was making good progress.

Hipkins was pressed on the lack of Labour policies released so far, however, he countered that the party had outlined its priorities - jobs, health and homes - and detailed policies would be released closer to the election.

"We'll get a tax policy out this year. There'll be some other policies as well ... A lot of that does have to wait until you know what you're in a position to deliver on. A lot can change in 18 months."

No fiscal plan could be released when the government still had another Budget to deliver prior to the 2026 Budget, he said.

Views on other political parties

Hipkins said he had not changed his opinion that it was "highly unikely" Labour would work with NZ First post-election although he was not completely ruling it out.

NZ First's "persecution of minorities" and "backward views on climate change" made them an unappealing coalition partner.

Hipkins believed some of the ideas around tax in the Greens' alternative Budget could be looked at.

However, "the scale of change the Greens are proposing to do in a rapid period of time would make that very challenging".

As for Te Pāti Māori, Hipkins said closer to the election Labour would set out those parties it believed it could operate with and those it would struggle to work with.

Preferred PM

When it comes to preferred Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon's lost support since the last RNZ / Reid Research poll, down 3.1 percent.

He's on 18.8 percent, below Hipkins who's up 2.3 points from March, and on 23.2 percent support.

NZ First leader Winston Peters at 8.9 percent (up 1 point) recorded his highest result since 2017. Chlöe Swarbrick in fourth was at 6.9 percent (up 0.8) - a personal best and just ahead of ACT's David Seymour on 6.4 percent (down 0.4).

Earlier, Luxon was dismissive of the poll results. "Look, I mean, I don't recognise the numbers. There's lots of different polls and frankly I'm just not going to comment or focus on the polls. Frankly what we're focused on is we were elected in '23 and people get to decide again in 2026.

"We've done a good job, and that's why we've got to focus on the economy, law and order, and health and education."

He said New Zealanders had "responded really positively" to the government's Budget, and saw the economy turning a corner.

Seymour said the numbers would continue to "bounce around" but it was still a tough time for New Zealanders - and the numbers were not a reflection on the Budget.

It was possible the pay equity changes were changing some voters' minds, he said, "but I also think doing what is right is what is politically popular in the long term, and even if I'm wrong about that, good policy is worth it anyway".

"The fact that ACT is close to where it was on election night 18 months into a government with 18 months to go is a good foundation. We have to prove ourselves on election night, and we've got lots of time to do that."

Peters refused to comment on whether his coalition partners were suffering from the handling of the pay equity changes.

The next 18 months leading up to the election would show the "critical need for stability", he said, and having ruled out working with Hipkins he was "comfortable and confident in our prospects" because the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in government would be "a nightmare".

Swarbrick said New Zealanders wanted a sense of hope.

"Things are feeling pretty bloody bleak. You know, we've got 191 New Zealanders leaving every single day, three quarters of them between the ages of 18 to 45, it's not a recipe for a flourishing country.

"We had dozens and dozens of folks turn out to talk to us about our Green budget and the sense of hope that they feel that they need - the kind of building blocks that we can have for a fairer society."

Te Pāti Māori's co-leader Rawiri Waititi said the poll numbers showed the party's policies and rhetoric around the government's actions were appealing to new supporters.

"The kind of anti-Māori, anti-wāhine, anti-woman, anti-worker, anti-climate, anti-rainbow, anti-woke type agenda that this government is pushing at the moment also is not appealing to the people who are trying to find a place to put their political support and trying to support those who fiercely advocate for them."

Explore the full results with RNZ's interactive charts.