Two days that tarnished Trump's aura of absolute power

By Stephen Collinson, CNN

Analysis - The myth of Donald Trump's absolute power rests on everyone believing it's true.

So, hints of vulnerability, successful challenges to his authority, or portents of a not-so-distant future that he doesn't dominate spell political danger for the president.

The commanding first nine months of the second Trump administration were anchored on the premise that if you don't like what he's doing - try stopping him. Trump, in many cases, outraced legal and political checks and balances meant to constrain presidents and imposed his audacious view of vast executive authority.

He shattered decades of convention at home and abroad, launching trade wars and spurning allies. He's sent troops into US cities, sparking constitutional crises; gutted entire government departments; and bullied universities, legal firms, media organisations and corporate chieftains, who bent to his will.

The republic's defenses aren't dead. Constitutional and political accountability is always retrospective and takes a while to stir. That's one reason why Trump's wild and whirling start to his second term has stirred fears of autocracy.

But a sense of permanence and omnipotence conjured by the president just took a dent, following a bumper off-year election night for Democrats, apparent scepticism among Supreme Court justices of Trump's emergency tariff powers, and reminders that the Constitution should deprive him of a third term.

Winning gubernatorial candidates Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey might only have held serve in blue states. But they delivered bigger-than-expected defeats to rivals who embraced Trump and MAGA values.

Even before their big wins, Democrats discovered a taste for fighting the president's fire with their own. California Governor Gavin Newsom on Tuesday praised voters who backed a redistricting plan to counter Trump's gerrymandering in Texas with the words. "We stood tall and we stood firm … after poking the bear, this bear roared."

Another Democratic governor, JB Pritzker of Illinois, has spent weeks resisting Trump's social media threat to impose "Chipocalypse Now" in the Windy City. And some Democratic-run states pledged to develop their own public health guidance following Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr's evisceration of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There have been small setbacks for the president, too, such as the restoration of Jimmy Kimmel's late-night show on ABC after a viewer and advertiser revolt. And more universities have pledged to resist the administration's attempts to impose its ideology by withholding federal funding. The more entities that show he's not an unstoppable force, the more momentum may turn into cresting opposition.

Political movements always start small. It took years for the civil rights movement and Vietnam War resistance to crank up. But each show of dissent breeds more. As former President Barack Obama put it on the last episode of Marc Maron's podcast: "What's required in these situations is a few folks standing up and giving courage to other folks. And then more people stand up and kind of go, 'Yeah, no, that's not who we are. That's not our idea of America.'"

Trump may respond harshly to Democratic success

But don't believe talk of Trump being a lame duck already. Presidents have great power - even those who don't see the office as a throne, as Trump often seems to. His control of a pliant Republican Congress means there's no oversight in Washington of his aggressive power plays - like his apparently lawless blasting of alleged drug trafficker boats out of the Pacific and the Caribbean.

Each indicator that Trump's grasp is slipping is balanced by a data point that shows his zeal for control - like the corporate bosses who rushed to finance his multimillion-dollar proposed new ballroom at the White House.

And the lesson of Trump's presidential career is that he responds to setback with belligerence, honoring his life mantra that every score must be settled.

Trump has already branded California's election as rigged and hinted at federal government action to try to flout the will of voters. His attempt to redraw congressional maps looks like a new way to circumvent democracy. He enjoys meting out punishment and warned New Yorkers he'd cut federal funding if they dared to elect Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist.

But the city Trump once called home, where he now almost never sleeps, refused to be intimidated and reacted to his anti-migrant purge by choosing the 34-year-old Uganda-born Muslim as its mayor.

There's another sign the political vibe may be changing - reflected in multiple polls that show Americans have lost confidence in Trump, believe the country is in bad shape and think the economy is struggling.

It's unwise to overinterpret a handful of elections. And Democrats have a sorry recent record of self-sabotage.

But Tuesday was the latest sign that Republicans face taxing midterm elections next year. Early retirement may beckon for GOP lawmakers with tough races. And MAGA strategists' claims of a new political realignment are now less credible, since they relied on Trump's impressive inroads with minorities last year. He, for instance, won 46 percent of Latino voters nationally, critically eroding a vital democratic coalition. But on Tuesday, Sherrill won New Jersey Latinos by 68 percent to 31 percent, reversing previous GOP gains.

The Constitution may derail Trump in the end

Trump rejects accusations he's on an unconstitutional power trip incompatible with America's founding values. "They said I was a king … and I said, 'No, I don't believe so,'" he said Wednesday.

But he also thinks he possesses untamable power. "I'm not a dictator … [but] I have the right to do anything I want to do," Trump told his Cabinet in August, while referring to his inner-city crime crackdown.

Trump's misperceptions about the powers of the presidency and persistence in testing constitutional limits may have been fed by the conservative majority on the Supreme Court which ruled in one of his now defunct criminal cases that presidents have substantial immunity from prosecution over official acts in office.

But those same justices seemed discomfited by Trump's invocation of emergency tariff powers. Chief Justice John Roberts, for example, questioned why he should be able to impose duties on "any product, from any country, in any amount, for any length of time".

Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump first-term appointee, questioned whether the president's approach represented "a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people's elected representatives."

Just as it's smart not to overanalyze individual elections, it's never a good idea to prejudge a Supreme Court ruling. But however the case turns out, Wednesday's hearing showed the constitutional system in action, with the judicial branch scrutinising the executive branch after it appeared to impinge on the authority of the legislative branch.

It wasn't the first time in recent days that the Constitution has irked Trump. Scuttlebutt among MAGA Republicans that there were ways around its prohibition on presidents seeking a third term seems to have been closed off.

"If you read it, it's pretty clear," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while flying to South Korea last month. "I'm not allowed to run. It's too bad."

Trump's words came after House Speaker Mike Johnson said he'd spoken to the president on the issue. "I don't see the path for that," he told reporters.

Still, Trump being Trump, this may not be the end of it. After all, he tried to stay in office in 2020 after losing the election to Joe Biden.

But a dicey political week for the president suggests that talk of going on after 2028 is a little premature even before he's completed his first year back in office.

It's hard enough to imagine the constitutional gymnastics required for a third term. But growing signs of opposition, recent polls showing his plunging approval ratings and fresh election results suggest there might in any case be little public appetite for such a thing. And no one knows what the state of the economy, the country or the world will be three years hence. And the energy levels, enthusiasm and health of an 80-something president would be a big question.

JD Vance has a vested interest in such things. The vice president wrote on X that it was "idiotic" to overreact to Tuesday's elections. But he did acknowledge hardening conventional wisdom that Republicans haven't properly addressed high food, housing and health-care costs.

"I care about my fellow citizens - particularly young Americans-being able to afford a decent life, I care about immigration and our sovereignty, and I care about establishing peace overseas so our resources can be focused at home. If you care about those things too, let's work together," Vance wrote.

Sounds a little like a 2028 election pitch.

Vance owes his current power base to Trump, so he must tread carefully. But the political winds do seem to be shifting a little. After a year of all Trump, all the time, the cleansing sight of Americans going to the polls has allowed his opponents to dream of a post-Trump era. While they'd prefer not to, GOP leaders must do the same, because the New Jersey and Virginia races proved the truism that Trump can reach parts of the electorate other Republicans can't. Barring some constitutional arson, Trump will never top another GOP ticket.

This week doesn't spell the beginning of the end of Trump's second term. But it might be the end of the beginning.

- CNN