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Former Kiribati president Anote Tong, a leading voice on climate change, says Australia's failure to secure its bid to host the next United Nations climate conference - COP31 - with Pacific nations is a missed opportunity in several ways.
He spoke with RNZ Pacific in the wake of this year's meeting, and highlighted the hopes regional advocates had tied to the bid - particularly around pushing Australia to stem its "economic dependence" on fossil fuels.
(The transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.)
Teuila Fuatai: Do you no longer have faith in COP?
Anote Tong: I don't think it will deliver on time. There's no significant response. I know there's been a lot of work done, but still not enough. We've got to be very brutally realistic that for the Pacific countries like mine - Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands - who are very low lying, our fate has already been decided. What's already in the atmosphere will continue to drive global temperatures up and will continue to drive sea levels to rise.
TF: So what does that mean? What are you actually looking for from COP or from these international treaties that we see? What is actually going to make the difference to Kiribati?
AT: I don't think a great deal. The science is very clear by the Fourth Assessment Report, which was released in 2007. The scenario then was that by the end of the century, our islands will become uninhabitable.
That has been reviewed by the Sixth Assessment Report, released in 2022, and now it's not the end of the century - it would be by 2060. The question is: 'What can we do to make that change?'
I don't think we would be in time. I'm part of a Climate Overshoot Commission, which was to avoid overshooting the tipping point of 1.5C, and I said: 'It's already overshot, as far as we're concerned'. And I think what the global community, the international community, needs to focus on, in our case, is what to do beyond 2060. What happens when our islands get submerged or begin to be unable to sustain life? And so that's not been addressed.
I recall in the Sixth Assessment Report that there is still time. I think time for most, but not for some. And we are part of the some.
TF: Have you given up on mitigation? Is it now just about adaptation?
AT: I think we must remain consolidated on pushing for mitigation, and definitely this is the reason we continue to push. But the solution of our problem is not in the mitigation - it's about providing adaptation strategies which would ensure that we can remain above the rising seas and the increasing storms. What options are there available for us?
TF: If we look regionally, one of the biggest players we have is Australia. They didn't secure the bid to be the host of the next COP. What ramifications do you believe that has for Pacific nations?
AT: Well, it would have been nice to have had Australia host it. That would have been good to show to the rest of the global community what it is that we are struggling with.
Of course, Australia continues to be one of the highest exporters of fossil fuel. And the expectation was that if Australia was to become the host, together with the Pacific countries, hopefully [it] would feel the pressure to deliver something meaningful, to avoid what it says that they're hosting. The whole purpose of hosting is to avert disaster that is coming.
TF: You've also been critical though of Australia, for example, in how it continues to open up mines. Now that it won't be hosting COP, how does that impact the bargaining power Pacific nations may have had to push it towards more ambitious climate goals?
AT: I'd always been hoping that Australia would provide the kind of leadership that we needed. With Australia providing the leadership at the international level, as part of the Pacific region, as part of the Pacific family, I believe we would have been more effective in influencing the international position on climate change. Hopefully, there's still that moral understanding.
I think now we have the International Court of Justice advisory opinion - that is in our favour. Previously, we had come from the moral high ground. Now we have some legal backing.
TF: Regarding Australia, do you think it has the mana to speak for Pacific nations on the issue of climate justice and climate change?
AT: I've always said with the way that Australia is not only exporting high volumes of fossil fuel, but also providing huge subsidies to the fossil fuel industry - tens of billions of dollars on an annual basis - the hope is that Australia will find some way to wean itself.
I've seen somewhere that Australia now has a roadmap to do that. I remember talking to Australian ministers asking: 'Do you have a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuel?' And I think they are doing it in terms of their own domestic emissions. But they're not weaning or, nor really trying to wean themselves away from economic dependence on the export of fossil fuel.
They need to do that.
